Russian investors are predicted to receive record dividends in 2024. According to brokers’ forecasts, the figure will exceed last year’s by 60%. For example, Tinkoff Investments analysts expect that more than 5 trillion rubles will be allocated for these purposes, this is a historical maximum. Experts explain the trend by the resumption of payments by metallurgical companies, as well as an increase in export revenue against the backdrop of a weakening ruble. By the way, the average dividend yield of the largest Russian issuers in 2024 will be almost 10%.
Which companies are expected to pay the most? Leading analyst at Digital Broker Daniil Bolotskikh believes that especially high returns will be received by investors in the oil and gas, steel and financial segments: “Our forecast for 2024 is a final payment of 4.9 trillion rubles. The largest sectors to pay dividends will be oil and gas, financials and metals and mining.
If we talk about companies that can provide the highest profitability, then we are talking, in particular, about Surgutneftegaz. Owners of preferred shares, in our opinion, will receive 13.5 rubles. dividend over a 12-month horizon, which is roughly equivalent to a yield above 23%.
We also like Bashneft and, naturally, the diesel king – LUKOIL. In the case of the financial sector, these are, for example, Sberbank and Moscow Exchange. Now there is a lot of discussion among metallurgists, in particular NLMK and MMK. We look at these cases quite positively. Both have a good cash cushion on their balance sheets, from which an increased dividend can be partially paid.
If we talk about such interesting stories, we really like the Rusagro case. Management itself said that investors would be rewarded for the long wait for the move. Also worth noting is Sovcomflot, the IT and telecommunications sector. Here are the same cases of MTS and Rostelecom.
To summarize, I would say that our favorites are LUKOIL, Transneft, Sberbank, Sovcomflot, Rostelecom and SFI.”
Brokers at VTB and Alfa Bank also expect that the companies will pay investors about 5 trillion rubles in 2024. The lowest figure was given by Rosselkhozbank – 4.5 trillion rubles. However, all these forecasts significantly exceed the indicators for 2023, when the volume of dividends amounted to slightly more than 3 trillion rubles. Many companies were able to accumulate assets over the past year and are now ready to pay interest, explained Andrey Petrov, director of client relations at BCS World of Investments:
“Plus or minus 5 trillion rubles. – these numbers are close to the truth. Many companies are returning to payments this year, primarily metallurgists. Also, the banking sector and oil companies cannot be ignored in this amount. And here I would separately highlight enterprises that carry out redomiciliation.
I think they may return to paying dividends, but perhaps their share of the total will be quite small. And among those companies that have already carried out redomiciliation, one can highlight United Medical Group, which said that it would return to paying dividends. The same was stated in the Mother and Child Group of Companies. It cannot be ruled out that if X5 Retail Group carries out redomiciliation, it will also return to paying dividends.
At the same time, I don’t think that the large amount of payments is the main indicator that everything is good or bad in our market now.
But I can say unequivocally that even if 1/5 of all this money, namely 1 trillion rubles. goes to our stock market, this can significantly affect its revaluation in a positive direction.
As for the prospects, if no extraordinary events occur in our country, then I think this trend will continue.”
Meanwhile, Tinkoff Investments calls LUKOIL the leader in both payments and dividend yield. Analysts believe that the company’s shares in 2024 could bring 17-19%, and investors will receive a total of 847 billion rubles from the issuer.
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