Analyst Osadchy predicted an imminent reduction in rates: is it worth taking money to banks

Analyst Osadchy predicted an imminent reduction in rates: is it worth taking money to banks

By the end of 2023, the volume of ruble savings of citizens will reach 40 trillion rubles, having increased by 21% since January. This was announced at the recent investment forum “Russia Calling!” This result is quite expected, because, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the average maximum interest rate on ruble deposits in the 10 largest banks in the second ten days of November reached 13.64%, which is almost twice as high as the inflation forecast for the year. Next, life for investors will become better and more fun, but not for long: the market expects rates to decline in 3-6 months. Maxim Osadchy, head of the analytical department of BKF Bank, told MK about this.

— What is happening in the deposit market in Russia now?

— At the end of July, a new cycle of tightening monetary policy began, the Central Bank again began to raise the key rate. At the end of the summer, it began to grow by leaps and bounds: from August 15 it grew by 3.5 percentage points – from 8.5% to 12%, from September 18 – by another percentage point, to 13%, from October 30 – by two percentage points, to 15%. Following the key rate, with a slight delay, deposit rates began to creep up again. Depositors responded sensitively to the concern of the Central Bank, which was tirelessly raising the key rate, and flocked to the banks with their hard-earned money. In August, deposits of individuals in rubles increased by 797 billion rubles, in September – by 959 billion rubles, in October – by another 914 billion rubles, while in June – by only 87 billion rubles, and in July – by 91 billion rubles.

— Will the growth of deposits increase by the end of the year?

— Statistics for November have not yet been published, but judging by the active reduction in cash in circulation, in November the influx of household funds into banks increased even more. And this trend is likely to continue in December. Moreover, in the second half of December we can expect even higher interest rates on deposits, since at the last regular meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on the key rate this year on December 15, the key rate may be raised to 16-17% due to that inflation continues to rise.

— For what period is it best to open deposits?

— Judging by the statistics, deposits of individuals in rubles with a maturity of 31 days to 1 year are actively growing, while those with a maturity of more than 1 year are declining. There is not only an influx of household funds into banks, but also a flow from deposits with a maturity of more than 1 year to deposits with a maturity of 31 days to 1 year. This process is due to the fact that banks offer the highest rates on deposits for periods ranging from a quarter to six months. As noted in the latest Analytical Review of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation “Banking Sector”, the main influx of funds came from short-term deposits of up to six months, since “banks do not want to attract expensive liabilities for a longer period.” This “reluctance” is caused by the fact that the market expects a rate cut in 3-6 months, as evidenced by the zero-coupon yield curve.

— In other words, the most profitable deposits for the entire past year and, most likely, the next one, will be before this New Year?

– Yes, let’s assume that kind and generous bankers are preparing a New Year’s gift for depositors.

— What happens to Russians’ foreign currency savings?

— The outflow of the population’s foreign currency funds from banks continues: in October, foreign currency deposits decreased by $0.6 billion, while in September – by $0.9 billion, and in August – by $1.4 billion. Mostly, Russians’ foreign currency funds flow from Russian banks for deposits in foreign credit institutions.

— But deposits only in “toxic” currencies are decreasing, while in “non-toxic” currencies they are growing?

“Indeed, a “detoxification” of foreign currency deposits is taking place: on November 1, the share of “non-toxic” currencies – mainly the yuan – amounted to 17%, while on April 1, 2022 it was only 0.4%.

It should be remembered that it is unwise to place funds in foreign currency in Russian banks – both toxic and non-toxic – due to the continued restrictions on foreign currency deposits. You place deposits in foreign currency, and get back rubles at the bank’s internal rate (read: arbitrary).

— Who is more actively increasing deposits in Russian banks?

— Wealthy investors. Thus, the amount of savings in the category of deposits above 20 million rubles for 9 months of this year increased by 1.4 trillion rubles. The average deposit in this category as of October 1 reached 95 million rubles. Everything is understandable: previously, rich people used to withdraw money abroad, but now, due to sanctions, this has become difficult and risky.

— Traditional question: what will happen to the ruble in the coming year?

— The ruble exchange rate is stabilizing. The range of fluctuations, that is, the difference between the maximum and minimum, has more than halved over the year: if in 2022 it was 69 rubles per dollar, then in 2023 it was “only” 34 rubles. It can be assumed that in 2024 the stabilization of the ruble will continue.

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