Prices for secondary housing in Moscow may fall by 10% at the beginning of 2024, according to market participants interviewed by Kommersant FM. Rising mortgage prices and declining demand will leave sellers with no choice. They have already begun to give discounts, which was not the case at the beginning of autumn, and banks have begun to sell mortgaged housing on the terms of the previous buyer. How much does secondary real estate in the capital cost? And what do buyers choose? Aelita Kurmukova sorted it out.
Over the year, real estate on the secondary market has risen in price by 6–12%, depending on the location and type of housing stock. In October, this growth slowed down slightly, and in some areas even fell, still at the level of tenths of a percent. But this already indicates possible stagnation, according to Kommersant FM’s interlocutors. The exception is the areas where the Big Circle Metro Line reached, where lots became more expensive by 10% in October alone.
But there were noticeably fewer buyers in October-November. Rates on housing loans on the secondary market, where there are no preferential programs, start at 17%. In addition, a number of banks have raised the down payment limit to 30%, although so far only for borrowers with loans.
Under such conditions, taking out a mortgage is too expensive, and financial organizations have already begun to offer anti-crisis programs, Natalia Borzenkova, head of the Mitino office of the Inkom-Real Estate company, told Kommersant FM:
“In order to somehow improve the situation regarding collateral, banks are ready to issue a loan to a new buyer on the old terms.
For example, you purchased an apartment at 12% per annum, and now you are selling it. In this case, the new buyer can take advantage of your rate and renew the contract on exactly the same terms. Sberbank is already offering such options, and over time all other players will do the same.”
At the same time, there are not many liquid objects on the secondary market with a good location and clean documents, adds Ms. Borzenkova. This is a factor that prevents real estate from sinking too much, but a fall in prices on the secondary market can no longer be avoided.
Sellers have already begun to offer discounts, says Yulia Dymova, director of the secondary real estate sales office of Est-a-Tet: “From mid-July to the end of September, there were no discounts a priori. Today we are talking about the fact that buyers are already taking advantage of special offers.
We are not talking about some global percentages, for example, in the comfort class segment the working discount is 50–100 thousand rubles.
If we are talking about business class objects, business plus, then the discount reaches 100–200 thousand rubles. The market will be strong until the end of December. Then, if a sufficiently large number of objects are exhibited, then we will face a certain price adjustment.”
The average supply price on the secondary housing market at the end of October was almost 290 thousand rubles. per square meter, calculated by the Moscow Guild of Realtors. And against the backdrop of falling demand and expensive mortgages, sellers will have to make concessions at the beginning of 2024, does not exclude the head of the analytical center “Real Estate Market Indicators” Oleg Repchenko:
“We can say that mortgages in the secondary market are generally dead; no one will take it at such rates, except for isolated options.
With this state of the market at the end of October-November, I think there will be a drawdown in demand, the market will fall into a state of stagnation and, perhaps, even hibernation. At the same time, if until recently the trade was small and symbolic, then by the spring of 2024 its depth will increase to 10 percent or more.”
If we talk about the minimum price on the secondary market, then a one-room apartment in Moscow costs from 7.5 million rubles, which is for 30 square meters. m in a residential area. Closer to the Third Transport Ring, housing costs start from 12 million rubles, in the Central Administrative District – from 15 million rubles.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.