According to the Central Bank, the average maximum rate on ruble deposits in the top 10 banks increased sharply and reached 13.57%. You can count on even more favorable conditions by opening a deposit for a period of three to six months. MK found out why the attractiveness of deposits is growing and how long the “banquet” for depositors will last.
In early November, the average maximum deposit rate increased by 1.53 percentage points in just one week. At the same time, the profitability of deposits for a period of up to 90 days was 10.70%, from 91 to 180 days – 13.16%, from 181 days to one year – 13.30%, for a period over one year – 12.40%. Since August, average maximum rates have increased by 5.5 percentage points. As Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Bank of Russia, stated in the State Duma, in September-October Russians put about 200 billion rubles on bank deposits.
The maximum rates among the 30 largest banks in terms of deposit portfolio volume reached 17% per annum, Frank RG analysts noted. They are offered for a 3-6 month period by three major lending institutions. True, royal gifts are not available to everyone. And only to new clients, if they open deposits on the Moscow Exchange “Financial Services” platform.
The conditions for most savings accounts look even more attractive at first glance. Key players promise income of around 15% per annum. However, one must keep in mind that such products are offered mainly exclusively to new clients and are designed for the first two to three months after opening a savings account. Then the bank (most often without even warning the client) can unilaterally reduce the rate.
A new powerful wave of increasing interest rates on deposits and savings accounts did not surprise experts. It arose due to the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. Let us remind you that on October 27, the regulator raised the key rate for the fourth time in a row to fight inflation. This time by 2 percentage points at once, to 15%. Following this, credit institutions began to unanimously raise interest rates on deposits.
According to Freedom Finance Global leading analyst Natalya Milchakova, banks’ generosity is due to the fact that they need to ensure high customer loyalty and meet their needs for cash liquidity. Because the demand for loans, especially among the population, remains high even despite the increase in interest rates. In her opinion, the increase in interest rates on deposits is favorable for the population, as it can encourage many Russians to change their economic behavior model and start saving at least part of their monthly income for the future in reliable banks.
Today, ruble deposits are traditionally in demand, Russian Standard Bank told MK. Deposits in US dollars, euros and yuan are usually opened by wealthy citizens as part of the diversification of their investment portfolio. However, such investments have lost their safe haven status. Thus, in early November, for the first time in five months, due to the fall in the exchange rate of the dollar and euro on the Moscow Exchange, holders of foreign currency deposits recorded a loss. Deposits in dollars depreciated investments by 7.9%, in euros – by 6.5%. A month ago, investors who chose these instruments received returns of 2.8% and 1.8%, respectively.
According to Sovcombank chief analyst Natalya Vashchelyuk, most banks offer the highest interest rates on ruble deposits for a period of 6 months (13.3% on average). The return on deposits for 3 months is usually slightly less. “You can equally distribute savings between deposits for these periods. You should also consider the option of placing funds for 3 years (interest rates can reach 15%), but the feasibility of such a decision should be assessed, taking into account, among other factors, the likelihood that the money may be needed earlier,” advises Vashchelyuk.
According to her forecast, interest rates on deposits may rise again in December: at the next meeting, the Bank of Russia will most likely increase the key rate from 15% to 16%. Annualized inflation is likely to peak around 9% year-on-year in the second quarter and reach 6.2% at the end of 2024. “Current 3-6 month deposit rates at most banks are therefore above expected inflation.” ,” the expert noted to MK.
A similar opinion was expressed by MK and the director of the department of operations in financial markets of Russian Standard Bank Maxim Timoshenko: “In December, most likely, there will be another increase in the key rate of the Central Bank by 100 basis points, to 16%.” However, in his opinion, one should not expect a significant upward revision of deposit rates. The rate adjustment will be more likely cosmetic, and only on short-term deposits (3–6 months). “Banks have already significantly raised deposit rates. Therefore, it makes sense for depositors to fix rates on long-term deposits (from 1 year) at current attractive levels this year,” the banker emphasized.
At the end of this year, in addition to the monetary policy of the Central Bank, the attractiveness of deposits will also be affected by the seasonal factor. It is no secret that in December, according to a long-standing tradition, banks lure depositors with pre-New Year promotions and “Christmas” offers with increased rates.
“The savings portfolio of Russians has grown by 13% since the beginning of the year, to 41.4 trillion rubles, and by the end of 2023, funds in ruble accounts of Russians, excluding escrow accounts, will increase by another 2.2 trillion rubles,” noted at the Finopolis forum, Natalya Tuchkova, head of the Savings department at VTB. According to her, deposits in national currency remain the main savings instrument for the population. Therefore, clients will strive to lengthen their liabilities against the backdrop of the expectation that the key rate will remain high, and then its possible reduction. “As a result, the focus of depositors will shift from 3-month deposits to longer periods – from 6 months and above. This will lead to an increase in the share of long-term deposits in the portfolio next year,” concluded Tuchkova.
Deposit rates have jumped