Dangerous month for Russia: dollar in June will cost 83 rubles

The ruble is about to lose its balance. In the first half of June, there will be several events that can shake the course of the “wooden”. We are talking about the suspension of the limit on the US public debt, the OPEC+ meeting and a possible reduction in oil production, as well as the long-term preservation of the key rate of the Central Bank. It would seem that summer is a traditional period of “calm” in economic activity, designed to give a respite to fluctuations in the Russian currency. But, apparently, not this year: the summer holidays of the ruble will obviously be restless. How and under the influence of what factors the exchange rate of the national currency will change, MK understood.

June is an important month for the Russian currency, capable of determining its rate for at least the whole summer. Analysts and market participants are discussing several major events affecting the ruble. One of them has already taken place: the United States agreed to raise the ceiling of the national debt, the technical default of the American economy did not happen. In theory, this should support the dollar and, accordingly, weaken other currencies against it, including the ruble.

An important meeting of OPEC+ oil exporting countries is taking place these days. It is expected that as early as June 5, the decisions taken during the negotiations will have an impact on oil prices, especially if the ministers of the participating countries decide to further reduce oil production. On the other hand, if production remains at the same level, this may contribute to a gradual decline in oil prices and the weakening of the ruble.

Another important financial event is expected soon. On June 9, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will announce a decision on the key interest rate. A number of experts believe that it will remain unchanged – at the level of 7.5%, and will not change at least until autumn. This means that the ruble will not receive any additional support through the Central Bank.

Further, on June 14, the entire financial world will be waiting for the decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates, where either a pause in raising interest rates or a new rate hike by 0.25 percentage points will be announced. This is also a decision in favor of the dollar and assets denominated in it.

The Russian currency is traditionally influenced by the instability of the global economy, changes in oil prices, the political situation and the diversification of investment portfolios by large players, says BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov.

“Factors working to weaken the ruble: an increase in demand for currencies with an increase in parallel import transactions, a possible collapse in oil prices, an increase in the Russian budget deficit, new sanctions from unfriendly countries, as well as meetings of the US Federal Reserve (June 4) and the Central Bank of Russia ( June 9),” the expert continues.

Meanwhile, in May, the ruble showed multidirectional dynamics against different currencies. So, against the dollar, the ruble fell, but only by 0.7%, but made up for lost time, having risen in price against the euro by 3%, and against the yuan – by 2.3%.

According to financial analyst Mark Goykhman, the strengthening of the ruble will be hampered by the ongoing gradual increase in budget spending compared to its revenues, which increases the unsecured ruble supply and requires a weaker national currency to boost ruble export earnings.

“The stability of the Russian currency is also affected by the manifestations of inflationary pressure from consumer demand and increased costs of producers noted by the Central Bank. The anticipated rise in inflation from May’s lows could put pressure on the ruble next month. At the same time, seasonal factors limiting prices in late summer and early autumn will not yet operate in June, ”the source of MK notes.

The analyst also recalled the ongoing sanctions pressure. Including for export, which limits the flow of foreign currency into the country, and for import, which makes imported goods more expensive due to increased costs for the purchase and delivery, and a decrease in their range.

In general, sadly for the ruble, most of the summer factors work against the ruble, and not in support of it. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, already in the first half of June, we should expect a weakening of the Russian national currency, albeit a gradual one. For example, Vladislav Antonov believes that the dollar will strengthen from the current level of 81 rubles to 83 rubles.

“The geopolitical background is likely to remain tense in June, which will continue to be a source of external risks for the ruble,” said Natalia Milchakova, lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global. “We expect that in June the dollar may fluctuate within 79-83 rubles, the euro – 84-88 rubles, the yuan – within 11-11.6 rubles.”