Famous economist Mahfi Eğilmez: Why did AKP, which has not lost elections for 22 years, lose this election? – Last Minute Economy News

Famous economist Mahfi Eğilmez: Why did AKP, which has not lost elections for 22 years, lose this election?  – Last Minute Economy News


Economist Mahfi Eğilmez published a remarkable analysis regarding the March 31 Local Government Elections.

“I see the comments ‘voters gave a message’ almost everywhere, but there is one thing I cannot understand: What happened to the voters who did not send a message in the general elections held a year ago, why did they intend to give a message within a year?” The highlight of Eğilmez’s evaluation on his blog The sections are as follows:

There are nearly 61.5 million voters in Turkey. The voting rate in this election was around 78 percent. This means that roughly 48 million of the 61.5 million voters cast their votes.

Nearly 16 million of them are retired voters, and the same number are paid employees. If we assume that 78 percent of these voters voted in line with the general trend, we can think that around 25 million retired voters and those earning wage income voted in this election.

This means that slightly more than half of those who voted in the election are retired and earning wage income. Roughly 7 million of the 16 million actively working people work for minimum wage.


Wage earners, other than retirees, minimum wage earners, and high-level wage earners, are unable to survive on the wages they receive in the face of high inflation and the increasing cost of living.

The government cannot provide a solution to the problems of this segment, whose situation has rapidly deteriorated, especially in the face of the increasing cost of living in the last year. It can neither reduce inflation nor increase wages enough to offset the cost of living. Because as a result of increasing public sector waste and various wrong policies, the budget has become unmanageable.


To summarize, in my opinion, the most important factor on these results was inflation and especially the cost of living, which AKP got out of control with its wrong economic policy.

As a result of these, the upside-down income distribution and the environment created by the completely disrupted wage system led the majority of those earning wage income, especially retirees and minimum wage earners, to vote against the AKP.

If the AKP had given another wage increase to retirees, minimum wage earners and wage earners in general before the elections, the outcome would have been different. However, then there would be no budget left to cover the rest of the year.

If you reduce the interest rate in an environment where inflation is rising even though your money is not a reserve currency, if you try to prevent the TL from finding its real foreign value by keeping the exchange rate, if you spend your foreign exchange reserves for this purpose, if you underestimate the issue of savings and support consumption while there is an incredible waste in the public sector, you cannot increase wages and this is the result. It is possible.

We have been saying it for years, but we could not explain it: Those who abandon science will be caught by the wolf. “Sometimes this happens a little late, but eventually it happens.”


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