Frightening expectation in the dollar exchange rate

Frightening expectation in the dollar exchange rate

Exchange rates continue to rise with cautious steps in financial markets. In particular, dollar/TL broke new records by exceeding 30.60 during the day yesterday. The historical peak was at 30.6125 in the “illikit” market. The Central Bank announced the dollar exchange rate for KKM accounts as the highest 39.5950 lira yesterday. Accordingly, for such account holders, there was an exchange rate difference of 7.37 percent in the last three months as of February 7, 2024. Following the change of president at the Central Bank, the markets are waiting for the messages that the new president will give with the inflation report to be announced today. International banks’ forecast statements for dollar/TL continue.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs claimed that dollar/TL will reach 32 TL after three months and 34 TL after six months. The bank predicts that the dollar exchange rate will reach 37 TL at the end of the year, exceed 40 TL in 2025, 44 TL in 2026 and 48 TL in 2027.

PEOPLE ARE BUYING DOLLARS

Evaluating both the bank’s forecasts and the progress in the exchange rate, Prof. Dr. Cem Başlevent reminded that the situation may occur after the municipal elections in 2023.

Stating that the economic management could not manage the expectations regarding the depreciation of TL, Başlevent said, “There is a decrease in the Central Bank reserve. From here we understand that the current level of TL is achieved at the expense of loss of reserves. An increase before the election is not desired. “However, the expectation that there will be a major relaxation after the election, as it was after the last election, is very high, which still pushes people to buy dollars,” he said.

STOCK EXCHANGE IS AT LOSS

BIST100 index in Borsa Istanbul is breaking new records. While investors rush to the stock market with the perception of a record, calculations made in dollar terms show that the index is at a loss. In dollar terms, BIST 100 index reached the level of 292 dollars. In 2023, the BIST 100 index reached its highest level in recent times with $ 312 in dollar terms. The dollar-denominated index reached its record level of $510 in 2010.



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