The domestic agenda includes the cabinet meeting to be chaired by AKP President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Treasury auctions and December labor statistics.
Today, the Treasury will re-issue the 14-month zero-coupon bond and the 10-year benchmark bond. Foreign demand in the benchmark 10-year fixed coupon bond auction will also be monitored in the market.
The Treasury targeted 250.2 billion TL domestic borrowing against 200 billion TL domestic debt service in February. The Treasury, which borrowed approximately 900 million Euros from the domestic market last week and 3 billion dollars from the foreign market through the issuance of Eurobonds, will continue to borrow tomorrow through four-year TLREF-indexed and six-year variable interest government bond auctions.
MARKET’S YEAR-END INFLATION EXPECTATION IS 45 PERCENT
While the CBRT stated in its report published last week that inflation would peak at approximately 73 percent in May, it did not change its estimate that inflation would drop to 36 percent at the end of the year and drop to 14 percent at the end of 2025. The market’s year-end inflation expectation is close to 45 percent.
One of the most prominent messages given at the meeting was CBRT President Fatih Karahan’s statement: “The fact that our policy stance will be maintained for a longer period than envisaged in the previous report will have a positive impact on the main trend (inflation).” Bankers perceived this message of the CBRT as a plan to maintain the tight policy for a longer period of time, not a reduction or increase in interest rates.
PEAK IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Dollar TL started the day at its new historical peak at 30.7005, continuing its gradual upward trend since September 2023. According to these data, TL lost 2.7 percent of its value against the dollar in January. The loss of TL against the dollar since the beginning of the year has been 3.8 percent. Euro TL renewed its peak by seeing 33.18.
The excess liquidity in the banking system was approximately 140 billion TL as of Friday. CBRT, on the other hand, has withdrawn more than 1 trillion TL of liquidity since last year’s general elections.
CBRT also announced that interest will be applied quarterly on required reserves established for TL deposits and exchange rate protected deposit accounts with a maturity of more than one month.
Deposit interest rates, which have decreased slightly since the beginning of the year, have shown an upward trend again. According to CBRT data, the three-month average deposit interest, which peaked at 52.6 percent on December 22, decreased to 49.6 percent on January 29, then rose again to 52 percent as of February 2.
While the US S&P 500 index closed above the 5,000 level for the first time on Friday, thanks to rises in major technology companies including Nvidia, trading volumes remained low on the first day of the week due to market holidays in Asian countries.
Risk appetite in stock markets increased with expectations that the Fed would reduce interest rates this year, following the upward revisions in inflation data of the past months in the United States. US inflation data for January will be announced this week.