Dollar TL started the day at 30.68, continuing the gradual upward trend that has been going on since September 2023. According to these data, TL lost 2.7 percent of its value against the dollar in January. The loss of TL against the dollar since the beginning of the year has been 3.77 percent. Euro TL renewed its peak at 33.12.
While the Treasury borrowed $3 billion yesterday by issuing 10-year dollar-denominated bonds, the return of the issue to investors was 7.875 percent.
December industrial production statistics will be followed on the domestic data agenda today.
WHEN WILL THE INTEREST REDUCTION?
While the CBRT stated that the 45 percent policy rate is at the level of monetary tightness required to establish disinflation, it gave the message that it was “too early” to talk about an interest rate cut.
One of the most prominent messages given at the meeting was Karahan’s sentence: “The fact that our policy stance will be maintained for a longer period than envisaged in the previous report will have a positive impact on the main trend (inflation).” Bankers perceived this message of the CBRT as a plan to maintain the tight policy for a longer period of time, not a reduction or increase in interest rates.
CBRT Vice President Cevdet Akcay He pointed out that they are focusing on making the transmission mechanism operational again, which will enable the full effect of the increases in the policy rate to be seen.
Akçay stated that revisions to the year-end inflation forecast should be discussed after the 45 percent policy rate can be fully transferred to the market and said:
“Why didn’t you revise 36 percent upwards? Let me explain to you the set we are working with as follows. The weighted average funding cost deposit interest link is broken, the policy rate inflation link is broken, the interest rate link is broken. We have been re-establishing the links that have been broken for seven months. Therefore, the 36 percent target is broken.” “It is much more meaningful to put in place measures that will constantly bring us closer to that goal rather than changing it.”
After the elections last year, the Ministry of Treasury and Finance Mehmet SimsekThe new economic management established with the introduction of has started to tighten monetary policy and simplify the structure established with hundreds of regulations in order to stop the inflation spiral that started with the CBRT’s interest rate cuts and extraordinary depreciations in TL in 2021 and to reduce inflation starting from the second half of this year.
LIQUIDITY OVER 1 TRILLION TL
Karahan also said that deposit rates and TL deposit share will continue to be an “important component” of the policy framework.
The excess liquidity in the banking system is around 110 billion TL as of yesterday. CBRT has withdrawn more than 1 trillion TL of liquidity since the general elections.
Last week, the CBRT announced that interest would be applied quarterly on required reserves established for TL deposits and exchange rate protected deposit accounts with a maturity of more than one month. At the meeting, both the president and Akçay pointed out that they started to see the positive effects of this application.
Deposit interest rates, which have decreased slightly since the beginning of the year, have shown an upward trend again. According to CBRT data, the three-month average deposit interest, which peaked at 52.6 percent on December 22, decreased to 49.6 percent on January 29, then rose again to 52 percent as of February 2.