In the economy, all eyes are on inflation data: Here are the inflation expectations of economists

In the economy, all eyes are on inflation data: Here are the inflation expectations of economists

The countdown for inflation figures continues. Inflation rate figures directly affect many items, especially civil servant and pension salaries. TURKSTAT and ENAG share inflation data on the 3rd of every month. However, on days that fall on the weekend, it is announced on the following Monday.

The Inflation Research Group (ENAG), which is independently formed by academics and economists, will announce the February inflation data at 09.30 on Monday, and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), whose data has been strongly criticized for being unrealistic, will announce the rate at 10.00.

WHAT IS THE FEBRUARY INFLATION EXPECTATION?

According to a Reuters survey of 14 economists, inflation is expected to be 42.7 percent at the end of 2024, well above the Central Bank’s (CBRT) 36 percent forecast.

In the Reuters survey, annual inflation forecasts in February are between 65.1 percent and 67.4 percent, while monthly forecasts are shaped between 3.3 percent and 4.1 percent.

The year-end forecast range in the survey is between 35 percent and 45 percent. Economists evaluate the effect of the increase in monthly inflation on prices in the service sector, especially the price increases in sectors such as food and distribution, as well as the 49 percent increase in the minimum wage at the beginning of the year.

AA Finance’s expectation survey regarding February inflation data was concluded with the participation of 10 economists.

Accordingly, the average inflation expectations of economists in February was 4.04 percent. The inflation expectations of the economists participating in the survey for February ranged from a minimum of 3.40 percent to a maximum of 5.00 percent.

According to the average inflation expectations of economists in February, annual inflation, which was 64.86 percent in the previous month, is expected to rise to 66.30 percent.

On the other hand, economists’ inflation expectation for the end of 2024 was 42.46 percent in February.

The median expectation of 22 institutions participating in Bloomberg HT’s survey is that CPI will increase by 3.8 percent monthly in February.

The survey predicted that CPI would increase by 66 percent annually.

The lowest monthly expectation for February inflation is 3.2 percent; The highest expectation was set at 5 percent. The highest estimate for annual inflation is 68 percent; The lowest is at 65 percent.

WHICH DATA WILL BE PAID ATTENTION?

On the other hand, CBRT Vice President Osman Cevdet Akçay stated that the 36 percent inflation target was ambitious and said that they would pay attention to the trend in monthly inflation.

ISTANBUL’S INFLATION HAS BEEN CLEARED

İTO announced Istanbul’s February inflation yesterday. Retail prices in Istanbul increased by 4.07 percent in February compared to the previous month and by 76.58 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.

WHAT HAPPENED TO INFLATION IN JANUARY?

TurkStat announced inflation as 6.70 percent on a monthly basis and 64.86 percent on an annual basis in January. The highest monthly increase was in health with 17.68 percent, followed by restaurants and hotels with 12.17 percent, and entertainment and culture with 9.07 percent. Producer inflation was 4.14 percent on a monthly basis and 44.2 percent annually in January.

According to the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), it increased by 9.38 percent monthly, while 12-month inflation was announced as 129.11 percent.



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