Interest rate forecast for Türkiye from Dutch bank

Interest rate forecast for Türkiye from Dutch bank


Economists at Netherlands-based ING predicted that the Central Bank will slow down with a 250 basis point interest rate increase next week.

Interest rate forecast for Türkiye from Dutch bank

Investors, Türkiye next week Republic While we are focusing on the interest rate decision to be announced by the Central Bank (CBRT) at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, predictions regarding the interest rate decision have started to come from international organizations.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Thursday, November 23, under the chairmanship of Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan. The interest rate decision will be announced at 14:00 on the same day. At the MPC meeting held last month, the policy rate was increased by 500 basis points to 35 percent.

‘CBRT MAY SLOW DOWN’

Economists of the Netherlands-based banking company ING predicted that the Central Bank would slow down with a 250 basis point interest rate increase. Economists’ analysis was as follows:

“The last inflation data announced in October showed that the main trend started to improve not only in core inflation but also in headline inflation.

Accordingly, we expect the bank to consider a slower increase of 250 basis points by reducing the policy rate to 37.5 percent in this month’s MPC. However, given the strong tightening moves since August, risks (for interest rates) are on the upside.”

ESTIMATED 40 PERCENT

In a developing country report published mid-week, ING economists predicted that the CBRT would stop the interest rate at 40 percent after two increases of 250 basis points. The report stated, “We expect the policy rate to be 40 percent with upside risks, with two increases of 250 basis points in November and December.”

The report also stated that the depreciation in the Turkish lira is likely to continue in 2024.

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