Political scientist Vadim Gigin assessed the damage to the military-industrial complex of Belarus from Ukrainian sanctions

Political scientist Vadim Gigin assessed the damage to the military-industrial complex of Belarus from Ukrainian sanctions

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky continues to throw around sanctions, trying to please the United States and Western countries. The day before, he made another controversial move, submitting to the Verkhovna Rada a decision on the application of economic sanctions in the military-industrial sphere against Russia and Belarus. “MK” looked into what kind of instrument it was and whether it could cause damage to the Belarusian military-industrial complex.

Ukrainian sanctions sound quite menacing on paper. They can be introduced for a period of up to 50 years and provide for a ban on any transactions in relation to military and dual-use goods with Belarus and Russia. The fulfillment of economic and financial obligations in relation to residents of the Russian Federation and Belarus for transactions with military and dual-use goods will also be terminated. It is not very clear what kind of Ukrainian military supplies to Belarus and Russia we can talk about after almost two years of the Northern Military District.

In addition, a ban is introduced on the transfer of technologies, as well as rights to intellectual property, to residents and residents of Russia and Belarus. But this does not sound very relevant given the tense relations between the three fears, when for the transfer of technology it is quite possible to receive a criminal sentence without sanctions.

Moskovsky Komsomolets was told by a well-known Belarusian political scientist Vadim Gigin.

– Since almost all ties between Ukraine and Belarus have been severed, these actions are largely political and symbolic in nature. In this way, the Kiev regime marks its enemies, shows with whom it can cooperate and with whom it cannot.

But we can also assume another background: from the activity of the SBU, one can understand that some individual figures from the Ukrainian defense department may have tried to reach out to the military-industrial circles of Belarus, and therefore a categorical ban on this was prescribed.

We know the specifics of the Ukrainian economy and political model: what is not prohibited is permitted. Perhaps some such contacts were recorded, which is why this ban appeared, although I think that the meaning is still symbolic.

– What reaction to the sanctions could there be from the Belarusian authorities?

– We have already developed a fairly consistent strategy. We always react calmly to such actions. We understand the character, structure, and logic of behavior of the Kyiv regime. Perhaps we should expect some kind of diplomatic statement, but nothing more. In some way, at the moment, these sanctions do not seriously affect our military-industrial complex.

We see the latest successes of our military-industrial complex, a demonstration of new developments, which were inspected by the head of the Belarusian state. What was shown at the exhibition of weapons and military equipment. We see the cooperation that is currently underway with the Russian Federation, the People’s Republic of China and our other partners. And this is also one of the reasons for such actions on the part of Ukraine, since they are very irritated by our military-industrial cooperation. And we know that they are often guided by emotional impulses when making certain decisions.

But, of course, this will not in any way affect our cooperation with Russia, China or other countries in the defense industry. Yes, we had good relations with Ukraine before the start of the Northern Military District, and even better – until 2014, in the field of contacts with leading Ukrainian enterprises in the defense industry, but now, and even Ukrainian analysts in Western publications do not deny this, the Ukrainian defense industry is to put it mildly, in a deplorable state.

Much has been destroyed during the strikes carried out by the Russian army to carry out demilitarization tasks. Something was simply stolen due to blatant corruption in the Ministry of Defense and in procurement. So there are no great prospects, even in the event of a freeze in the conflict or anything else, in cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industry. No one in Belarus would take this step, given the relationship with the Kyiv regime.

– We can say that the Belarusian economy is ready for sanctions…

– The Belarusian economy has managed to adapt not only to Ukrainian sanctions, but also to much more dangerous Western sanctions, and we see this in the indicators that the Belarusian economy demonstrates, and in general, Western experts admit that with some losses, but they cannot be To deny, Russia and Belarus have quite confidently adapted to the conditions of these sanctions and the degree of adaptation will only increase.

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