Scenario that scares Israel and its allies: If tension closes Suez

Scenario that scares Israel and its allies: If tension closes Suez


The USA and European countries that support the terrorist state Israel and their supporters who remain silent about the genocide in Gaza; It is on edge due to tensions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Countries that support Israel, which has been committing genocide in Palestine for 4 months, are afraid of paying the economic price for their complicity in the massacre.

Western supporters of Israel, who apparently do not speak out against Israel, which has turned the region where the maritime trade route opening from the Red Sea and Suez Canal to the Mediterranean is located into a ring of fire, are in great anxiety due to a maritime accident that could occur at any time.

If the Suez Canal is closed due to a shipwreck or a conflict arising from tension, as in March 2021, European countries and Israel will suffer the most. Western states; Most of the goods they supply from the Middle East and the Far East, especially China, are obtained by ships using the Red Sea and Suez Canal route.

OIL AND LNG TRANSPORTATION STOPS

Especially European countries, which supply their natural gas and oil needs from this region due to the Russia-Ukraine War, will also be prevented from reaching Europe by tankers in case the Suez is closed. Global trade experts state that, as a result of an accident in the Suez Canal, the canal will be closed to transportation for a long time, which will greatly disrupt the trade of Western states that support Israel.

There are delays in the deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker ships from Qatar to Europe. QatarEnergy, whose deliveries of dozens of tankers have been delayed so far, stated that there may be disruptions as the delivery of LNG cargo has been rescheduled through alternative routes. Similar delays also occur on ships carrying oil from Saudi Arabia to European countries.

It is stated that Western states, which are very uneasy about such a development that could happen at any time in the troubled region, will cut their support to Israel. It is stated that these possible developments are behind the recent efforts of Europe and the USA to pressure Israel to stop its massacres in Gaza. The importance of the Suez Canal is increasing day by day for Europe, which trades with China, India, Japan, Pakistan and Indonesia, the largest countries of Asia, where the center of gravity of the global economy is shifting.

TENSION STARTED TO HIT EUROPE

After Israel started massacres in Gaza, the tension in the region increased and the events in the Red Sea led to a large increase in international container transportation prices. Some automotive factories in Europe, which were most negatively affected by the blockage in the Red Sea, temporarily stopped their production due to supply delays. The extension of travel times due to cargo ships diverting their route to the Cape of Good Hope causes disruptions in the supply chain of various sectors.

Passages through Suez decreased by 32%

The 193-kilometer-long canal connecting the Mediterranean to the Red Sea mediates approximately 12% of global trade. Passages through the Suez Canal have decreased due to the tension caused by the Israeli massacres. Passages through the canal, where an average of 49 ships pass per day, have decreased by 40 percent in the last two months. As a result of the container ship The Ever Given crashing and running aground in March 2021, the Suez Canal was closed to maritime traffic for 6 days and hundreds of ships could not pass.

The two maps above and below show the frequency with which ships using the Suez Canal head towards the Cape of Good Hope.

Delivery time extended, cost increased

Due to the ongoing tension in the Red Sea due to Israeli-destined cargo ships being targeted from Yemen, commercial ships are either suspending their voyages or shifting them to the Cape of Good Hope. According to research by PortWatch, created by the International Monetary Fund and Oxford University, ship passages at the Cape of Good Hope have doubled in the last two months and trade volume increased by 75 percent, despite the late delivery of cargo and the doubling of costs.

Red Sea countries are also worried

The decrease in the Babülmandeb Strait, which is the gate of the Red Sea to the ocean, decreased by more than half in January compared to the same period last year. Passages fell to the lowest level since March 30, 2021. This situation closely concerns countries such as Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Jordan and Israel, which have coasts on the Red Sea. Daily ship passages in the region decreased by 67 percent and trade volume decreased by 66 percent. This picture increases anxiety; It suppresses energy prices because it disrupts oil and natural gas shipments.



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