The slow growth in prices for secondary housing still continues: over the month, apartments in the largest regional markets have risen in price by an average of 1.5%. But the trend may soon reverse. The share of owners reducing prices in advertisements has doubled, the activity of potential buyers has decreased, and in real transactions discounts are increasing. Analysts do not expect a noticeable reduction in the average cost of secondary goods until the end of the year, counting only on the stabilization of values. But by spring, housing prices could fall by 10%, the market does not rule it out.
The average cost of secondary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets in Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in November amounted to 136.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m, increasing by 1.5% per month, was calculated in CIAN.Analyst. The company adds that price dynamics remain stable: in the previous two months the figure grew by 1.6–1.8%. Etazhi notes an increase in the cost of secondary supply in Russia as a whole by 1.36% per month, to 119.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m.
The head of CIAN.Analytics, Alexey Popov, explains that a more pronounced increase in average prices is typical for cities with relatively inexpensive housing. So, in Chelyabinsk the cost of supply over the last month increased by 3.2%, to 93.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m.V Kazan the dynamics was 3%, up to 165.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In “Etazhi” they recorded an increase of 3.5% in the average cost of supply in Omsk, up to 98.8 thousand rubles. per sq. m.V Saratov the value increased by 3.3%, to 82.5 thousand rubles. The only city where the cost of resales decreased over the month, according to analysts, was Khanty-Mansiysk: the average value decreased by 0.3%, to 115.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m.
In the country’s largest markets, price dynamics have been smoothed out. IN St. Petersburg secondary housing now, according to CIAN.Analytics, costs 209.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m, this is 1.1% higher than last month. IN Moscow the indicator increased by 0.5%, to 316.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. “There are a lot of recently commissioned new buildings here, pricing is determined by higher competition for buyers,” says Mr. Popov. The Inkom-Real Estate company adds that the average apartment on the secondary market “old” Moscow Now it costs 14.38 million rubles. Over the month, the figure increased by 0.3%, but over the year decreased by 0.2%. IN New Moscow The cost of the lot reaches 9.83 million rubles. Over the month, the value increased by 0.4%, over the year it decreased by 0.7%.
Director of the “secondary market” direction of the company “Inkom-Real Estate” Sergei Shloma estimates the current volume of the secondary exhibition of “old” Moscow at 89.11 thousand lots. Over the month, the value increased by 0.6%, over the year – by 8.3%. In New Moscow, the volume of supply increased by 0.6% and 13.8%, respectively, to 8.7 thousand. But in fact, the deficit remains; in these conditions, the cost of housing, according to the expert, cannot yet decrease.
“High demand has washed away the liquid supply, unattractive options are accumulating, and the choice is very limited,” explains Mr. Shloma.
According to calculations by CIAN.Analytics, the volume of supply of secondary housing in the largest regional markets as a whole increased by 1% over the month, to 173 thousand listings. “The increase is insignificant, but the trend reversal itself is indicative,” says Mr. Popov. According to his observations, the activity of buyers in the initial work with advertisements is decreasing. “If until mid-November the number of views was adjusted down by several percentage points per week, then from November 6 to 12 the figure fell by 20 points,” he says. The expert attributes the dynamics to the flow of demand into the segment of new buildings and the end of the active period of transactions.
Sergei Shloma also sees a decrease: “November will be less productive than October.” The expert suggests that about 20% of potential secondary buyers may give preference to the primary market, where preferential mortgage rates remain. Director of Etazhi Ildar Khusainov says that due to the reduction in the number of buyers, the size of discounts in real transactions on the secondary market is gradually growing. Although many owners, according to him, still take the position “if you’re going to sell, it’s going to be expensive.”
This ensures an increase in nominal average prices, explains Mr. Khusainov. The position of sellers regarding pricing, according to the expert, is not always explained by market trends, but may be tied to the cost of the apartment they want to purchase in return.
Alexey Popov sees the prerequisites for further correction of prices on the secondary market: “New items have already become a little cheaper than existing ads.”
The decision to adjust the price in an ad downward, according to CIAN.Analytics, was made by 10% of ad owners over the last week; the usual indicator for a “quiet market” is 5–6%. “In the medium term, we expect stagnation of prices with more pronounced negative dynamics in areas with increased competition for buyers,” predicts Mr. Popov.
Ildar Khusainov expects price stabilization in the next two to three months and an increase in the share of discounted apartments at the beginning of next year. “There are such offers now, but they are rare, when the owners are interested in an urgent sale,” he says. Sergei Shloma does not rule out that if current mortgage rates remain the same, in 2024 the number of transactions on the secondary market will decrease by 30% from standard values. This will lead to increased exposure and will help lower prices. In his forecast, the expert envisages a cost reduction of 10%, but not earlier than the spring of next year.