The rush demand for secondary real estate, caused by consumer fears due to the weakening of the ruble and tightening mortgage lending conditions, is gradually fading away. This has already led to a slowdown in price dynamics: over the month, the national average increased by 1.5–1.6%. The suppression of consumer activity will likely lead to an increase in the number of discounts and a decrease in the cost of objects, but this will be noticeable in a few months, according to the market.
The average cost of secondary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets in Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in September amounted to 132.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, increasing by 1.6% compared to August. Such calculations are given in Cyan.Analytics. Experts note a slight slowdown in price growth: over the previous month, the average increased by 1.9%, which was the maximum value in more than a year. In “Etazhi”, the increase in the cost of secondary housing in Russia as a whole for the month is estimated at 1.5%, up to 116 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.
Most pronounced growth in “Cyan.Analyst” noted in the secondary market Chelyabinsk, where the average price per month increased by 5.1%, to 86.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Nizhniy Novgorod the same dynamics amounted to 3.4% for the month, to 129.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Etazhey analysts noticed an increase in the indicator in Omsk by 3.3% by August, to 93.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Perm the same dynamics amounted to 3.2%, to 101.7 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. The only city under consideration, where analysts recorded a decrease in the average price, was Khanty-Mansiysk, where the figure decreased by 0.9%, to 114.1 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.
In Moscow, according to Cian.Analytics, the average cost of a secondary supply is now 313.4 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. This is 1.1% higher than the previous month. Sergei Shloma, director of the “Residary Market” direction of the Inkom-Real Estate company, notes that the average secondary apartment in “old” Moscow now costs 14.32 million rubles, over the month the value increased by 0.2%. In outskirts of Moscow — a similar increase, up to 6.7 million rubles. In New Moscow, the figure decreased by 0.1%, to 9.86 million rubles.
Sergei Shloma points out that secondary apartments in Moscow are now on average 15–20% cheaper than new buildings.
According to calculations by Cian.Analytics, 187 thousand secondary lots are now available in the 18 largest regional markets. Although the volume of active supply continues to decline by 6–7% per month, the head of Cyan.Analytics, Alexey Popov, draws attention to the gradual decline in demand. Now the number of targeted actions with ads is 10% less than at the end of August. The activity of potential buyers, according to the expert, has returned to June values - the period before the start of rush demand.
Sergei Shloma also noticed a decrease in the number of requests in September, noting that the peak of demand occurred in August. “Due to concerns about tightening lending conditions, the collapse of the ruble and other things, premature demand was realized: people who planned to buy an apartment in the fall or winter made deals earlier,” he explains. Director of Etazhi Ildar Khusainov adds that in August many people bought housing using previously approved mortgage loans. Although in general, according to him, buyers have become more relaxed about the tightening of loan conditions, hoping to refinance them in the future.
Sellers, according to Mr. Shloma, understand that demand will inevitably decline and in October will fall below normal, which is why it is better to sell the property now, this will restrain price growth. Mr. Popov noticed that in the last two weeks, owners have begun to more often adjust the cost of their properties in favor of reduction.
Ildar Khusainov adds that private investors are trying to sell their lots, fearing a protracted period of high lending rates.
Sergei Shloma believes that potential buyers will take a wait-and-see approach at least until October 24, when the next decision of the Central Bank on the key rate is due to be made. “People will put off deals until better times,” he argues. The expert suggests that this could lead to a slow decline in prices. But, according to his forecasts, it will be noticeable only after the New Year holidays. The head of Apple Real Estate sales, Violetta Khachaturova, expects that the reduction in demand and lower prices on the market will begin in a couple of months.
Alexey Popov explains that a significant adjustment in average indicators will be possible only after a noticeable reduction in buyer activity, which will force sellers to stimulate sales through discounts. In the next five to seven weeks, prices, according to his forecasts, will continue to rise even with fading demand. In the future, a more pronounced decline should be expected in recently completed houses, where there is higher competition for buyers, notes Mr. Popov. But Sergei Shloma also draws attention to the fact that restraining buyer activity in the foreseeable future will in any case lead to the formation of deferred demand, which after some time will result in a new rush on the market.