Air passengers equalized the score – WWN No. 41 (7486) dated 03/13/2023
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According to Kommersant, in February, for the first time in a year, airlines not only did not reduce passenger traffic, but even slightly increased it. However, traffic remains about 14% lower than in February 2019. Some experts expect a reduction in passenger traffic after the end of government subsidies from April, but others see no reason for this, given the pent-up demand for flights abroad.
As it became known to Kommersant, in February, Russian airlines carried more than 6.5 million passengers, which is almost 50 thousand people more than in February 2022. The backlog from February 2019, when the industry was not yet affected by the pandemic, is almost 1 million people. Recall that on February 24, 2022, due to the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, 11 airports in the south of the Russian Federation were closed, and at the end of the month, carriers began to cancel flights to Europe.
This is the first month since the outbreak of hostilities that passenger traffic has not fallen from the low “recovery” base of 2021. Last spring, transportation fell by 20-30% in annual terms, in summer – by 15-20%, by January 2023, the decline was reduced to 10%.
Aeroflot Group carried 2.9 million passengers in February 2022, which is 0.9 million less than in February 2019. Aeroflot itself increased passenger traffic by 21% by February 2022, to almost 1.5 million people, lagging behind February 2019 is 40%. Passenger traffic of Pobeda fell by 17% by February 2022, to 850 thousand people, an increase by February 2019 is 36%. Rossiya transported 573 thousand people, adding 13% to last year and almost catching up with the results of February 2019. In Rossiya, Kommersant was told that the results were due to an increase in seat occupancy on domestic routes by 11.3% and the opening of “transport hubs” in Krasnoyarsk and Sochi. Aeroflot and Pobeda did not answer Kommersant.
The second largest in terms of traffic – S7 – transported just over 1 million people, showing a decrease of 9% by February 2022 and an increase of 40% by 2019 (from 744 thousand). Ural Airlines, which closes the top 5, grew by 12% and 2%, respectively, to 525,000 people.
Seat occupancy increased year on year from 77% to 86.2%. There is no breakdown into international and domestic lines in operational statistics. But most of the passengers are on flights across the country, as evidenced by the dynamics of the largest airports.
The largest growth was shown by Sochi, which in January-February served a little less than 1.5 million (an increase of 81% by 2019 and 22% by 2022), Novosibirsk – 1.1 million people (51% and 23%, respectively) and Samara – 435 thousand (25% and 15% respectively).
The picture is worse at the Moscow air hub (MAU), which has lost a significant share of international traffic. Domodedovo has served 3.02 million people since the beginning of winter (a drop of 13% by 2019 and 9% by 2022), Sheremetyevo – 4.49 million (an increase of 0.5% and a decrease of 33%), Vnukovo – 1 .8 million (down 27% and 35%, respectively). Kommersant’s interlocutors explain the greatest backlog of Vnukovo by the transfer of part of Pobeda’s flights to Sheremetyevo. Both airports declined to comment. Domodedovo clarified to Kommersant that in January-February, traffic on international routes increased by 17% compared to 2022, “primarily due to the directions of the CIS countries.”
S7 flying from Domodedovo plans to increase passenger traffic in the summer season by expanding the route network, in particular from Irkutsk, and increasing the number of international flights (the carrier plans to resume flights to China). The main reason for the decline in overall passenger traffic there is a change in the structure of the route network, an emphasis on regional transportation and an increase in the average range of flights.
The press service of the charter Azur Air, which missed about 40% of passengers, stressed that “the February figures are unrepresentative” because “the situation in the industry has changed dramatically.” “March will be indicative, for the whole year we expect an increase in passenger traffic by 10%, to 2.3 million people,” they added. Another major company added that they hope to increase transportation to 2019 levels by reorienting the fleet to international lines.
Such expectations are quite justified, Oleg Panteleev, executive director of Aviaport, believes. Demand for overseas transportation in 2022 was only partially satisfied “and in a number of areas with a preponderance in favor of foreign airlines”, while “there has not been such a low share of international flights for more than 20 years.” The further ratio will be determined by many factors, the most important of which are “the exchange rate of the ruble, the sufficiency of carrying capacities and the non-deterioration of conditions for flights abroad.”
According to some interlocutors of Kommersant in the industry, passenger traffic in the Russian Federation is supported exclusively by subsidies, and after the completion of a large-scale state support program (125 billion rubles from April 2022 to March 2023), a deep decline should be expected by 2019. Oleg Panteleev does not consider subsidies to be a key factor: “For an audience traditionally focused on holidays abroad, saving several thousand rubles per flight around the country will not be decisive.”
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