COP 28: World Climate Conference: Phase-out of fossil fuels?

“In the next few days we have the opportunity to carry out a paradigm shift that will define the economy of the future,” said Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, President of the World Climate Conference, on Friday. He is right, because a complete exit from fossil fuels is also under discussion. Since the “global inventory” of climate protection efforts to date is sobering, countries must do more. There is therefore a lot of support in Dubai the call for tripling renewable capacity and doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030. Many countries also want to phase out fossil fuels, but others reject this – especially China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia and de facto also the USA.

In the final phase of the UN climate summit COP 28, which runs until Tuesday, the aim is to break as many countries as possible out of this alliance, says Jan Kowalzig from the development organization Oxfam. “You have to proceed gradually and isolate the last remaining countries as much as possible.” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who is negotiating the issue on behalf of the EU, will play an important role. For Kowalzig, it is particularly important to prevent a loophole from being created for fossil energies: “It’s about phasing out fossil energies and not just fossil emissions,” as these countries are demanding. “In the end there will be the fiercest wrangling” over this point.

In order to build up enough pressure, the environmental organizations hope to revive the “High Ambition Coalition” (HAC). This includes progressive industrialized countries, small island states and the poorest countries in the world. In doing so, it breaks through the classic frontal position between the global north and global south. The HAC, which represents the majority of the almost 200 countries at the COP, will only come about if poor countries are supported in switching to climate-friendly technologies, say observers.

What makes matters worse in Dubai is that the negotiators in the first week of the conference failed to achieve their goal of developing a quorum for the final declaration on many issues. This means that only “building blocks” are available for important areas. This also applies to adaptation to climate change, a topic that has been neglected at every COP to date. Now it is up to Al-Jaber and his team to put together a package from the “building blocks” in the last few days that all countries can agree to. However, there is widespread distrust of him as he is also the head of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company.

However, Al-Jaber and the Emirates have a great interest in making COP 28 a success. He must therefore conclude the conference “successfully as progress in the global fight against the climate crisis,” says Jan Kowalzig. Especially since Al-Jaber has also announced that he will reinvent the climate conference concept. Quite a few are keeping their fingers crossed for him.