Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for April 4–5

Dollar exchange rate.  Forecast for April 4–5

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On Wednesday, the dollar exchange rate made another attempt to consolidate below the level of 90 rubles. During trading on April 3, the exchange rate of the American currency dropped to 91.91 rubles, which is 66 kopecks. below Tuesday’s values. But, as in previous times, the attempt was not successful, and according to the results of the main trading, the rate was 92.31 rubles/$, which is only 17 kopecks. below Friday’s close. The bullish play on the ruble side is hampered by high demand for currencies from companies and households, as well as a reduced supply of export earnings.

Banks Dollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$)
Bank Zenit 93.00
PSB 91.50-93.00
Russian Standard Bank 91.00-93.00
Expobank 90.00-93.00
“BCS World of Investments” 91.00-93.00
“Tsifra Bank” 91.50-93.00
Consensus forecast * 92.17

* Consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic average of analysts’ forecasts

Dmitry Rozhkov,
treasury director

The ruble should remain near the achieved values ​​in the near future

At the beginning of April, the ruble found itself between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, rising oil prices increase currency flows into the country and have a positive effect on the exchange rate of the national currency. Of course, this factor is partly offset by the reduction in production volumes, but so far such a reduction has not had any impact on the ruble. On the other hand, in April the Ministry of Finance will allocate 11.2 billion rubles each for the purchase of foreign currency and gold. daily, which, taking into account the mirroring of operations by the Bank of Russia, indicates a decrease in net sales of foreign currency on the domestic market by 12 times, to 0.6 billion rubles. Thus, the ruble in the near future should remain around the achieved values, without showing any obvious dynamics.

Maxim Timoshenko

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department

On the dollar side – statistics

The ruble occupies a relatively stable position, and increased volatility is not expected in the coming days. However, not in his favor is the traditional decrease in the sales of foreign currency earnings by exporters this season and another G7 discussion of the prospects for lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil. The focus is on the OPEC+ meeting and the predicted extension of the deal to limit oil production. On the dollar’s side are statistics demonstrating stability in the labor market in February, increased manufacturing activity in the US and higher-than-previously forecast growth in orders for manufactured goods in February. News about a slowdown in annual inflation in the eurozone to 2.4% in March can support the euro. At the same time, the dollar is not on the side – fresh data from the IMF, which indicate a decrease in the share of the American currency in world reserves in 2023 to a minimum of 1995.

Denis Buivolov

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The dollar shows strength relative to other currencies

Our forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate by the end of this week is 91–93. The end of the tax period this time was not marked by a decline in the Russian currency. The ruble could have been given strength by higher oil prices that have established in recent weeks. Meanwhile, net sales of foreign currency on the market, which are carried out by the Central Bank, in the April period will decrease almost 12 times, to 600 million rubles. in a day. For the national currency, this is a slight negative in the short term, but it also means an increase in oil and gas revenues, which is already positive in the long term. The dollar is showing strength relative to other currencies, the DXY index has been trading at highs since mid-February, above 104 points. The Fed said that it will not rush to cut rates, while a number of strong economic statistics have recently been released in the United States.

Evgeniy Loktyukhov,
Head of Economic and Industry Analysis Department

Market volatility may increase by the end of the week

The Russian currency is supported by the favorable situation on global commodity markets, restraining demand for the currency: Brent oil prices are heading towards $90 per barrel, reaching new highs since November 2023. However, by the end of the week, volatility in the market may increase, and the dollar may again try to overcome the resistance zone of 93–93.5 rubles. due to the reduction in foreign currency sales by the Bank of Russia from April 5 to 0.6 billion rubles. from the current 7.1 billion rubles, as well as less activity from exporters, which is natural for the beginning of the month. We do not expect directional movement in the foreign exchange market; we maintain the target range for April at the level of 91–95 rubles/$.

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