Gasoline rises in price for the future – WWN No. 32 (7477) of 21.02.

The wholesale cost of fuel accelerates growth for the second week in a row. Thus, the price of AI-92 and AI-95 at SPIMEX increased by more than 3% and 2%, respectively. Last week, gasoline rose in price against the backdrop of the government’s decision to cut subsidies to oil producers for deliveries to the domestic market. However, the cost of fuel is still lower than a year ago, and the economy of gas stations is in a good plus. At the same time, fuel production is growing in February, although analysts did not rule out a decrease in output in the spring.

Exchange prices for gasoline accelerated their growth: the cost of AI-92 and AI-95 rose on February 20 by 3.1% and 2.4%, to 39.3 thousand and 42.5 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively, according to the data of SPIMEX. Over the month, AI-92 and AI-95 increased in price by 18% and 11%, respectively. The cost of summer diesel fuel increased on February 20 by 0.7% to 45.6 thousand rubles. per ton.

The cost of fuel is growing against the backdrop of an increase in world prices for Brent oil, which exceeded $84 per barrel. Wholesale fuel prices resumed growth last week after the government decided to reduce damper payments on diesel fuel and especially gasoline from April 1 (see “Kommersant” dated February 14). In total, the budget expects to receive 85 billion rubles from the adjustment of the damper. taking into account the increase in the reverse excise tax on oil due to the adjustment of the price of raw materials in the calculation of taxes.

The damper is a tool to contain prices within the Russian Federation when world prices for raw materials rise. It is calculated as part of the difference between the export fuel price and the indicative domestic price. If the difference is positive, the budget pays extra to the oil companies for deliveries to the domestic market, and if the difference is negative, the oil companies pay to the budget.

In anticipation of damper reduction, market participants are rushing to buy cheap volumes ahead of the expected increase in wholesale prices in the spring

In addition, one of the factors affecting the cost of fuel in the Russian Federation is the start of seasonal repairs at refineries in March, as well as a decrease in oil production next month.

Wholesale fuel prices in Russia remain low due to export restrictions amid sanctions. Last year, after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, European buyers began to refuse Russian oil products, and on February 5, the EU imposed an embargo on them, at the same time a price ceiling for fuel from the Russian Federation came into force. This led to a fuel surplus in the Russian market. Thus, the current wholesale prices for gasoline are about 1.5 times lower than in February 2022. At the same time, the cost of fuel at filling stations remained practically unchanged, which allows filling station operators to extract high margins.

The embargo on Russian oil products has not yet affected the volume of oil refining in the Russian Federation.

So, according to Kommersant, Russian oil companies processed about 790 thousand tons per day in the first half of February. High refinery utilization is stimulated by damper payments and is likely to continue in March.

According to Sergei Kondratyev of the Institute of Energy and Finance, gasoline production remains at a high level: in mid-February, daily gasoline production was 122,000 tons (up 3% yoy). This may indicate an increase in demand within the country, the expert adds.

The dynamics of fuel demand this summer remains an unknown quantity: demand was relatively stable last year, also due to strong domestic car tourism, as flights to Europe were stopped, flights to accessible destinations rose, and airports in the south were closed. In addition, the need to restructure logistics has increased the demand for road transport on certain destinations. However, this year, as some market participants fear, the purchasing power of the population may be lower, given the effect of partial mobilization and departure from the country of part of the economically active citizens.

Dmitry Kozlov