Gentiloni: “The EU will confirm Italian growth of 0.7% in 2024, probable debt procedure on 18 June”

CERNOBBIO – The European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni confirms Italy’s growth estimates for 2024, equal to one 0.6-0.7%, about half of the government’s official projections. And he is quite optimistic about European growth, especially that of the Southern countries “to which that horrible acronym that we all remember was attributed (Pigs, ed.) and which after Covid have shown a greater capacity for recovery and reaction, also through common European investments, compared to other countries on the continent”. Brussels estimates for Italy are for a GDP increase of 0.6-0.7% this year. “We will confirm them or correct them, but I think that in general we will confirm them around mid-Junewhen we will present the further forecasts”, said the former president of the Italian centre-left council. The estimates are rather in line with those confirmed yesterday by the Bank of Italy (+0.6%)and very distant from those of the Meloni government in the autumn Def (+1.2%), which could be slightly adjusted in the new Def in a few days.

Brussels sees an accelerating economic situation

“We have a year and a half of difficult crisis behind us, which has led to a notable slowdown in economic activity – explained Gentiloni – but I think two things can be said which also fuel a certain confidence: the first is that we have avoided the recession at least like the EU as a whole, the second which seems to confirm the Commission’s previous forecasts, so in the second half of the year we could have an acceleration in economic activity, and next year the acceleration could pick up speed” The Roman politician brought “several confirmatory elements: from the very positive situation of theoccupation, to the recovery of purchase power that there is with an increase in wages, albeit with differences in the different countries, to the fact that this recovery of purchasing power has not fueled rebounds in theinflation which continues to fall quite clearly”. Regarding the Italian situation, he said again speaking on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Workshop“one can see the glass as half empty or half full: we had 11 out of 27 European countries are in recession, and some are major economies. At the same time there are countries, such as in the Iberian Peninsula, which have higher growth rates than Italy, but the European average is very similar to the Italian figure both in 2024 and 2025″.

On 18 June the infringement procedure on Italian accounts

As for the fact that the modest Italian growth will cause a future one procedure for excess deficit, the commissioner appeared seraphic, as the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti had done days ago in a hearing in the Chamber: “It is probable that on the basis of the data there are a certain number of countries in excessive deficit procedures . Certainly not just Italy. What in Brussels we call the ‘spring package’, with the elections taking place on 9 June, will perhaps arrive on the last day of spring, around June 18th, and we will look at the data.” The situation is made uncertain by the fact that the rules on public finances in the EU will change in mid-April. “This is a complicated phase of transition from the existing rules to the new, more flexible rules: therefore, what happens with the infringement procedure must be combined with the 4- and 7-year programs that the different countries will present this summer.”

On the Pnrr “it is reassuring that the scammers are caught”

Gentiloni also commented the investigation into fraud on Pnrr funds, which ascertained fraud amounting to 600 million in Italy. “You can take it from two points of view, if you want to take it positively (and I have to do this for a living), the fact that the work of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office and the Gdf has identified these scams is an element of guarantee for European citizens, because let’s not forget that their money is common moneyaccepted on the market as common debt. Then there is also a negative aspect that we must manage, that is, that the emergence of facts like this shine a little more spotlight on Italy and the Pnrr and more than ever we are challenged to be efficient in implementing the plan. But in itself the fact that scammers are caught and that the financial police is the protagonist I find it positive and reassuring”.