Ministry of Energy: the ruble will stabilize at around 90–92 rubles/$ from mid-2024

The ruble will strengthen at the end of 2023 – the first half of 2024, eventually stabilizing from the second half of next year at around 90–92 rubles/$. This is stated in the macroforecast of the Ministry of Energy for 2024 and for the planning period 2025-2026.

The authors of the forecast note that the volume of merchandise imports in January-July decreased by 32% in value terms year-on-year, for the entire year the decrease will be 22%. In real terms, exports will decrease by only 0.5% due to the recovery of non-oil and gas exports.

Merchandise imports, in turn, in January-July increased by 18% in value terms due to the low base of 2022. At the end of the whole year, imports will grow by 13.4% in value terms and by 7.4% in real terms. The current account balance in 2023 will be about $74.4 billion, or 3.9% of GDP.

Against the backdrop of a decline in exports, an increase in imports and changes in the structure of foreign trade payments, over the course of eight months, the dollar rose against the ruble by 36.4%, the euro – by 38.1%, and the yuan – by 32.7%. By the end of this year, the pressure on the trade balance and the national currency from foreign trade will gradually weaken; a reversal in the situation on the world commodity markets has been evident since June.

“In turn, an increase in the inflow of foreign currency through the current account, along with the ongoing diversification of its currency structure, will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2023 – the first half of 2024. From mid-2024, the exchange rate of the Russian currency against the US dollar will stabilize at range of 90–92 rubles/$,” says the Ministry of Energy forecast.

In early September, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the Ministry of Finance advocates more stringent measures regarding currency control than the Central Bank. According to him, earlier “the ministry was more liberal” regarding control over flows, but now, on the contrary, the Central Bank has taken a “liberal position.”

As Elvira Nabiullina, Chairman of the Bank of Russia, noted, there should remain such currency control measures that mirror the anti-Russian restrictions. Vedomosti sources reported that there was a consensus between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank that tightening foreign exchange controls is an extreme measure that can only affect the exchange rate temporarily, while masking the fundamental reasons for the weakening of the national currency. On September 20, Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Aleksey Moiseev allowed the restoration of some currency control measures.