Monsoon 2023: The prospects are not looking good from now, will this monsoon scorch the economy? – monsoon forecast 2023 normal rainfall expected this year el nino likely

half of the population depends on agriculture

India is the fifth largest economy in the world and one of the fastest growing. Due to lack of irrigation facilities, people associated with agriculture depend on the rains of the monsoon season. Apart from this, 91 percent of the reservoirs from which water is provided for generating electricity, production in factories and drinking, are dependent on this monsoon rain. Agriculture accounts for 20 percent of the country’s GDP. About half of the population depends on agriculture for livelihood.

Drought has happened 13 times

There have been 13 droughts in the country since 1950, out of which 10 occurred during El-Nino, but El-Nino does not necessarily lead to drought. In 1997, India experienced the strongest El-Nino ever, but the monsoon was normal then. Between 2001 and 2020, India experienced El Nino conditions seven times. Drought happened because of only four of these. This, however, led to a 16 per cent decline in kharif production, which pushed up inflation. Kharif crops meet half of the country’s annual food supply. However, drought is no longer the disaster it was before. This situation has come about due to continuous boom in agricultural productivity. The country’s food production at present is about 320 million tonnes. In 2009, the country was hit by its worst drought in three decades. Even then the country managed to produce one lakh tonnes more food grains than in 2007. The special thing is that in 2007 the monsoon was normal. The country is counting on another weather phenomenon. It is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which promotes rainfall and thwarts El-Nino. At present it is positive.

what if there is a drought

If there is a drought, it will reduce the income of the farmers, due to which the demand for things like TV, fridge, tractor, passenger car will reduce in the market. Unemployment will increase. Inflation will get wind. It will hurt the economy overall. The Reserve Bank believes that if India survives El-Nino, then inflation is expected to be between 5.0-5.6 per cent in the current financial year. That is, inflation can go above 6 percent in case of drought due to El Nino. Inflation above 6% is outside the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank. To overcome this, the Reserve Bank may have to increase the interest rates. This will make loans costlier.

Will there be heavy rains this monsoon or not? The puzzle is made for weather experts

Monsoon will be normal!

The Meteorological Department has assured that the monsoon will be normal. He makes estimates based on data from the last 50 years. If the rainfall is 96 to 104 per cent of the average of these years, then it will be considered a normal monsoon. The department says that this time there is a 96 percent chance. Ashwin Patil, an expert in investment matters, says that keeping the forecast of the Meteorological Department at 96 percent is a cautious approach in itself. It is clear that if there is a decrease of even one percent, the monsoon will be less than normal. The last four years passed with normal monsoon. Meteorologists believe that it is difficult to get a normal year once again. There are reports that the Government of India has started preparations in view of the warnings. Monthly meetings are going on between the Ministry of Agriculture and the Meteorological Department, so that a special plan can be prepared according to each area. The Meteorological Department will provide forecast and advisory services to 700 districts of the country to tell what is the rain scene.