Oil workers retained the volume of gasoline supplies to the domestic market amid accidents at refineries

According to Kommersant, Russian oil workers maintained the volume of gasoline supplies to the domestic market in mid-March, despite drone attacks on a number of refineries. At the same time, gasoline production decreased by about 4%. The difference is covered by accumulated reserves, the level of which is still significantly higher than a year ago. The total refining volume at Russian refineries has so far decreased by only 0.5% by February. However, the statistics do not yet reflect the effect of a decrease in output at the Samara Group refineries, including the attack on the Kuibyshev Refinery.

Gasoline production in Russia for the week of March 13–19 fell by 3.9% relative to the previous week and by 5.2% relative to the production plan – to 779.4 thousand tons (111.3 thousand tons per day), interlocutors say. Kommersant”, familiar with statistics. The minimum production volume was recorded on March 18 – 104.7 thousand tons per day. This is the first week when gasoline production was affected by drone attacks on the Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan and Syzran refineries.

Despite the decrease in production, gasoline supplies to the domestic market during the reporting week even increased slightly compared to the previous one – by 0.3%, to 794.2 thousand tons. Shipments exceeded production by 2%.

Oil companies covered the difference by using gasoline reserves at refineries and tank farms. Inventories decreased by 1.5% (25.5 thousand tons) compared to the previous week, but still amount to almost 2 million tons. Thanks to the introduction of a ban on gasoline exports from March 1, its reserves, despite the reduction in production, are still 153 thousand tons higher than a year ago.

Gasoline production decreased amid attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries. Thus, on March 12, drones damaged a primary oil refining unit at the Nizhny Novgorod Oil Refinery of LUKOIL, and later disabled two such units at the Ryazan Oil Refinery and one at the Syzran Oil Refinery (both owned by Rosneft).

As a result of a drone attack on March 23, a primary processing unit at the Rosneft Kuibyshev Oil Refinery caught fire. “There was no damage to the technological equipment,” assured the governor of the Samara region, Dmitry Azarov. The effect of the attacks on the Samara Group’s refineries will be clear from the statistics for the next week.

Oil refining in March, according to Kommersant, is 722.6 thousand tons per day, which is 0.5% less than the February level. The Ministry of Energy expects that the decrease in oil refining at a number of plants will be compensated by its increase at other refineries. In the meantime, oil companies increased oil exports in March. As plants begin traditional spring repairs in the coming weeks, refining rates may continue to decline.

The cost of gasoline at St. Petersburg International Trading Exchange has been growing over the past two weeks. Thus, on March 22, exchange quotes for AI-95 in the European part of the Russian Federation increased by 0.7%, to 66.9 thousand rubles. per ton.

On March 22, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a regular meeting with oil companies, during which he instructed oil workers, together with Russian Railways, to “ensure uninterrupted export of petroleum products and loading of refineries in accordance with the schedule and growing spring demand.”

Data on daily gasoline output show that the consequences of Ukrainian drone attacks “have so far turned out to be less significant than preliminary analysis showed, which suggested a 12-13% decrease in output,” notes Sergei Kondratyev from the Institute of Energy and Finance. According to his forecasts, by the end of March, output will likely be 135-140 thousand tons, or 4%, below the plan, which, taking into account available reserves, will avoid a shortage in the domestic market.

The situation on the market in April, Mr. Kondratiev believes, will depend on how quickly it is possible to return damaged units to operation and additionally load other refineries.

Dmitry Kozlov