Super bonuses and expensive energy will push the growth of photovoltaics in 2023

Super bonus And dear energy have driven the growth of Solar photovoltaic in 2023, the year that ended with 373,929 connected plants, or 23% of those connected throughout Italy, for a power equal to 5.23 GW. A result that brings the total number of photovoltaic systems connected to almost 1.6 million in 2023 for a total power of 30.28 GW, of which 28% (8.56 GW) is attributable to residential sector (with systems > 20 kW), 50% is attributable to C&I commercial and industrial sector (20 kW ? P < 1 MW) and the remaining 22% pertains to utility-scale sector (P > 1 MW).

Sticking to the new ones installations, in 2023 there was an increase, compared to 2022, of +85% in relation to the number of connected plants and an increase of +111% in relation to the connected power. This growth was mainly driven by residential sector and from C&I sector. In fact, 43% (2.26 GW) of the power connected last year relates to the residential sector, 35% (1.82 GW) is attributable to C&I and only 22% (1.16 GW) is attributable to utility scale sector. If we consider 2023 over 2022 the increase was equal to +83% for residential, +168%

As mentioned, the main drivers that drove this increase were respectively the Superbonus mechanism el’increase in energy prices. The latter only had a real impact starting from the beginning of 2023.

In fact, the photovoltaic power attributable to the C&I sector connected on a monthly basis was on average: 56 MW during 2022, 120 MW during the first half of 2023 and stabilized at around 180 MW during the second half of 2023. While the average half-yearly Pun during 2022 was respectively: 248, 358, 136 and 118 Euro/MWh.

“The increase in energy prices has had an important effect on the connections of industrial photovoltaic systems on average with a gap of 6-9 months, this hysteresis is due to the time lapse between the request for offers and the realization of the project. ‘system – he explains Paolo Rocco Viscontini, president of Italia Solare – A trend, however, which did not stop when energy prices began to fall again and this is due to the fact that companies have well understood the advantages of photovoltaics, which allows them to ensure the price of energy for at least 20 years, protecting companies from any risk of further surges.”

In the last months of last year there was also a peak growth of connections of large systems (P > 10 MW): during the fourth quarter of 2023, 8 photovoltaic systems of this size were connected, for a total of 341 MW, of which 227 MW during the month of December alone. The surge in the last period is evident if we consider that between January 2020 and September 2023 420 MW were connected. The explosion of utility-scale connections in recent months could only represent the beginning of constant growth over time, especially since according to Elemens data from 2019 to 2023 over 12 GW of large plants were authorized and over 2/3 of the capacity is not yet under construction.

Lombardy leads the ranking of the regions

Shifting the focus to a local level, as of December 31, 2023 the Lombardy thanks to 907 MW of new connections during the past year, it has crossed the threshold of 4 GW of cumulative connected power, while Veneto (3.16 GW) ed Emilia Romagna (3.03 GW) have exceeded the threshold of 3 GW of cumulative connected power and are reaching Puglia (3.30 GW). In terms of number of facilities it is always there Lombardy leading the ranking, followed by Veneto and Emilia Romagna.

If you analyze the sector segmentation it is noted that the majority of C&I and utility scale plants are located in central and southern Italy and it is Lazio that has the greatest power of utility scale plants (920 MW), followed by Puglia (848 MW) and Sicily (801 MW), if we consider the C&I sized plants, Puglia records the greatest connected power (1,638 MW), immediately behind Lombardy (1,197 MW) and Emilia-Romagna (948 MW).

Observing the connections occurred during 2023it is noted that the largest share of power relating to the C&I sector was connected in North of our country (Valle d’Aosta, Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Trentino Alto-Adige, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Liguria and Emilia Romagna), which hosted 67% (1,214 MW) of the connected power relating to this sector, followed by Center of Italy (Tuscany, Marche, Umbria, Lazio, Abruzzo and Campania) with 20% (363 MW) and from South And Islands (Molise, Basilicata, Puglia, Calabria, Sicily and Sardinia) with the remaining 13% (242 MW).

Even taking into consideration the power connected during the last year attributable to the size 1 MW < P < 10 MW, it is still the North the area to have hosted the most connections, with 70% (515 MW) of the total connected power attributable to this size, followed by South and Islands And Center with the remaining 17% (129 MW) and 14% (107 MW).

Finally, during 2023, 12 utility scale plants were connected, for a total of 417 MW, of which 6 are located between Sicily And Sardinia, for a total of 222 MW. The other 8 plants are distributed among Basilicata, Lazio, Piedmont And Puglia.