The cost of secondary housing may begin to decline, but the dynamics will be restrained

In conditions of limited demand and a gradual increase in supply, the dynamics of prices for secondary housing has slowed down: its average cost in the largest regional markets of the country over the past month has increased by only 0.4%. Analysts note that up to 40% of lots are now being sold at a price reduction, and the nominal value of offers during the exhibition period is reduced by an average of 3.5%. This may be a prerequisite for a reduction in average rates in the future, but the dynamics, according to analysts, will be restrained: the market does not expect reductions of more than 1% per month.

The average cost of secondary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets in Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) at the beginning of April amounted to 143.4 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, increasing by 0.4% compared to the previous month. Such data is provided in Cyan.Analytics. In Etazhi, the average cost of secondary real estate in Russia as a whole is estimated at 126.4 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, over the month the figure increased by 3.5%. Avito Real Estate adds that the cost of a lot on the secondary market in Russia now averages 5.2 million rubles. Year on year the figure increased by 15.6%.

The head of Cyan.Analytics, Alexey Popov, draws attention to the fact that the situation in regional markets remains uncharacteristically stable.

Change in average by more than 1% for the month, analysts recorded only in Krasnodar. The growth was 2.2%, up to 135 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In “Floors” they also note increase in indicator by 1.3% per month In Nizhniy Novgorod, up to 146.9 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Krasnoyarsk, according to the company, the growth was 1%, to 123.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. At the same time, in Samara, analysts recorded decrease by 0.8%, up to 107.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In St. Petersburgaccording to calculations by Cian.Analytics, the average cost of secondary housing per month hasn’t changed and amounts to 218.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.

In Moscow “resale”, according to Cian.Analytics, is now exhibited for an average of 336.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Over the month the figure decreased by 0.2%, over the year it increased by 6.9%. Director of the “Secondary Market” direction of the Inkom-Real Estate company Sergei Shloma notes that about 40% of objects are sold with a price reduction of 2%. “We can talk about an emerging trend towards a decrease in the cost of secondary housing,” he states. According to him, demand lags behind last year by an average of 25% and the main factor limiting activity remains expensive mortgages. At the same time, Mr. Shloma recalls that in the first quarter of last year the market was quite active. Now, in his opinion, there is rather a lull.

This trend can be seen in the secondary market of the country as a whole. The head of Etazhi, Ildar Khusainov, believes that in the last month demand was on average 18% behind last year’s figures, although there was a slight positive trend relative to March. “There are still buyers with a large share of their own funds who are improving their living conditions, plus families with children have become more active after the next indexation of maternity capital,” he argues. Mr. Popov says that the volume of supply in the 18 largest regional markets over the past month has grown by 3%; in March, the same dynamics were estimated at 2%. Yandex Real Estate noticed an increase in the volume of exposure by 3.75% per month and by 18.5% over the year.

Against the backdrop of relatively weak demand, sellers stepped up their discounts.

“The nominal offer price is now decreasing by an average of 3.5% during the publication of the announcement,” explains Alexey Popov. But Mr. Khusainov warns that, in general, owners use completely different strategies. “Some have taken a wait-and-see approach and set prices for their properties above market prices,” he believes. Commercial Director of Yandex Real Estate Evgeny Belokurov believes that the general stagnation of prices on the secondary market repeats the trend in the segment of new buildings amid the lack of news that could have a noticeable impact on the market.

Ildar Khusainov expects that prices on the secondary market will be frozen in the near future. Growth, in his opinion, is possible only if demand is fueled by reducing preferential mortgage programs in the segment of new buildings and gradually reducing the key rate in the second half of the year. Mr. Belokurov assumes that the accumulation of exposure will continue due to the active commissioning of new buildings and the absence of obvious incentives to increase consumer activity. In Moscow, demand in April-May will continue to lag behind last year’s values, and the average cost of housing may decrease by an average of 1% per month, predicts Sergei Shloma.

Alexandra Mertsalova