The deficit is growing, but at a slower pace – WWN No. 39 (7484) of 03/07/2023

In February, the 2023 federal budget was again closed with a deficit, but not in such a dramatic amount that frightened analysts as in January. If in the first month of the year revenues lagged behind expenditures by 1.76 trillion rubles, then in the second – by 820 billion rubles, follows from the data released yesterday by the Ministry of Finance. In general, in January-February, the deficit amounted to 2.581 trillion rubles. This is 88% of the plan for the whole year (2.925 trillion rubles). A year earlier, following the results of the first two months, a surplus of 415 billion rubles was recorded.

It should be noted that this year the department has carried out the second stage of cutting down information on the collection and spending of taxpayers’ money. In May 2022, sections on the structure of expenditures, on sources of financing the deficit, and figures on the state of the state treasury in the past month disappeared from the reporting. Since February 2023, the Ministry of Finance has been giving preliminary figures earlier (apparently preceded by comments on operational information from the Treasury) and providing them with reassuring comments about the predictability and stability of budget execution. At the same time, they no longer contain a breakdown of income by administrators (primarily the Federal Tax Service and the Federal Customs Service), data on payments for imports, excise taxes, and the primary deficit.

From the left figures it follows that the income of the first two months amounted to 3.163 trillion rubles. This means that in February the budget received 1.807 trillion rubles after 1.356 trillion rubles. in January (it was partly conditional, the single tax payment launched this year is transferred on the 28th, and due to the calendar peculiarity of February, its distribution among budgets actually took place in the first days of March). In any case, the income of two months is a trillion less than last year (by 24.8%). Oil and gas revenues fell year on year by 46.4% (see Kommersant of March 6), non-oil and gas revenues – by 9.1%. The latter, as the Ministry of Finance explains, mainly due to the reimbursement of overpayment of income tax, while VAT collection even turned out to be in positive territory, by 5.4%.

January-February expenses are 5.744 trillion rubles. (by 52%, or almost 2 trillion rubles more than a year earlier). At the same time, the rate of disbursement of money decreased: 3.117 trillion rubles were spent in January, and 2.627 trillion rubles in February. As before, the Ministry of Finance explains such high costs by the prompt conclusion of contracts and advance payments, further spending should become more even.

Vadim Visloguzov