The government’s Def arrives, but without the promises on taxes and pensions. Deficit below 5%
[ad_1]
ROME – A Def of broken promises. This is what will arrive on the table of the Council of Ministers in ten days. The most important document of the year will also be among the most difficult for the Meloni government.
No matter how much effort I make to bend the numbers – and the first hypotheses circulating go beyond even the most optimistic predictions, with the GDP at 1% driven by an almost phantom Pnrr – the reality for now does not seem to contemplate major interventions on tax, family, pensions. Reforms not even a shadow. Other than flat tax, family quotient, outgoing flexibility o Quota 41.
De Palo: “Dramatic Istat data. A project for the family is missing. The trend of bonuses is not enough”
by Valentina Conte
1% growth
The narrative that Palazzo Chigi and the Ministry of Economy are preparing to make is that of a country that is doing better than others in Europe. Growing less than expected – 1% instead of 1.2 budgeted in September – but still above last year’s level (0.9). And more than what the great forecasters have put down in black and white: 0.7% for the EU Commission, OECD, IMF and even 0.6% for Bank of Italy, growth practically halved. A gray sky. Not for the Meloni government. But the real surprise will be on deficit and debt.
Deficit deflated
The alarms raised several times by the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti on the Superbonus which has dramatically inflated public accounts («You don’t realize», he says to the parliamentarians who pull him by the jacket, asking for exceptions to the latest tightening) they seem to have already returned. The latest hypotheses on the trend picture – the trend of the main economic variables without “programmatic” government interventions – see a deficit slightly above what was forecast for this year, between two and four tenths more. Means that instead of 4.3% we will have 4.5-4.7%. In any case below 5%. A surprising result, given that in 2023 we jumped to 7.2% due to the construction bonus.
Debt down, but only a little
The explanation clashes with recent complaints: «The wave of the Superbonus is behind us, now we will discount it in installments on the debt, no longer on the deficit», says a technician working on the tables. A reading that regardless of the verdict June Eurostat which only then will tell us how to classify the Superbonus this year, whether in the deficit or in the debt. In the meantime, the government carries on. And indeed it would be oriented towards putting in the Def of April 10th a debt level slightly lower than expected, therefore just below the 140.1%. Thus taking advantage of the very favorable Istat recalculation which in early March had lowered the 2023 debt by almost three points (also thanks to inflation) to 137.3% of GDP. The debt will therefore in fact rise, but without exceeding the expected threshold of 140%.
The government celebrates, but EU infringement arrives
This is enough for the government to claim victory. Accounting tricks, virtuosity, optical effects: they can be called in a thousand ways. But in the end the Meloni executive will toast: GDP booming, deficit and debt falling (albeit from a very high expected level). There’s little to celebrate, though. Only the European elections at the beginning of June saved Italy from a corrective maneuver already now, in the spring. Sooner or later Brussels will open the procedure for excessive deficit against Italy. A necessary action given that last year’s deficit was above 7%. But thanks to the ballot boxes, no sacrifice to the views. Not now.
See you in September
Appointment at the end of September with Nadef, the note that reviews and updates the Def, currently in preparation. And then the maneuver for 2025, in mid-October with two huge mines: 15 billion to find so as not to raise taxes (cutting of the wedge and of the Irpef to be renewed) e new Stability Pact European Union that imposes on us a diet of deficit (towards 3%) and debt.
The League fears the reshuffle. Idea Meloni: Leo at the Mef and Giorgetti in Europe
by Emanuele Lauria
The government reshuffle
Decisive turning points for the country. But also for the government and its political stability which will enter into fibrillation already after the June polls. It is no mystery that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is looking to a reshuffle in the ministerial team that reflects the electoral result. The Minister of Economy himself Giorgetti could sign the April Def, but not the September Nadef and the October maneuver. He himself would have asked the prime minister for a trip to Europe, as commissioner.
Scenarios still far away that could shake the Italian economic policy framework. Not bad, considering the terrible numbers.
[ad_2]
Source link