The number of warehouses offered for sale in the first quarter increased by 16%

High tenant demand for warehouse real estate has stimulated owners to more often seek to sell properties. The volume of supply in the segment increased by 16% over the year, but the rise in prices of objects and loans led to a decrease in the interest of potential buyers. A reduction in rates on bank deposits could spur investor activity, market participants believe.

The number of warehouses put up for sale in the first quarter of 2024 in Russia increased by 16% year-on-year, according to Avito Real Estate. Analysts recorded the most pronounced dynamics in Dagestan, where supply increased by 72% year on year. In the Leningrad, Bryansk, Novosibirsk and Moscow regions, the number of advertisements increased by 65%, 59%, 32% and 30%, respectively.

Demand for the purchase of warehouses in Russia as a whole, according to Avito Real Estate estimates, decreased by 1% year-on-year in the first quarter. In the Tver region we are talking about a decrease in activity by 57% year-on-year, in the Kaluga region – by 55%. In the Moscow region and Leningrad region, an increase of 2% and 4% was recorded, respectively.

Oleg Izotov, head of the commercial real estate category at Avito, believes that the dynamics of demand are affected by the sharply increased cost of space. Over the year, the declared supply price of warehouses in Russia on the site increased by 44%, to 13.5 million rubles. per lot on average. Anton Alyabyev, senior director of the warehouse and industrial real estate department at CORE.XP, believes that high-quality warehouses now cost an average of 70–80 thousand rubles. per square meter, which is 14–17% more than a year earlier. The consultant names the main reasons for rising prices as an increase in construction costs, rising prices for land, borrowed funds and high customer demand. NF Group partner Konstantin Fomichenko speaks of an increase in the cost of selling warehouses by 25–35% per year.

Managing Director of 3PL operator NC Logistic Harold Vlasov notes that the cost of selling a dry warehouse over the year increased by 30%, to 75 thousand rubles. per square meter. “As a result, few companies are willing to purchase warehouse real estate at the current high key rate,” he says. Investors, according to Mr. Vlasov, expect a reduction in the cost of lending in the future. Companies purchasing warehouses for their own needs prefer to enter into build-to-suit deals, he points out. Although the director of PEC: 3PL, Ivan Masalov, notes that some players who previously rented warehouses are now seeking to buy them due to rising rates in recent years.

According to Anton Alyabyev, in the first quarter, the total volume of investments in warehouse real estate in Russia increased year-on-year by 6%, to 15 billion rubles. Of this amount, 77% of the funds were invested for investment purposes, the rest was spent by end users. Mr. Alyabyev estimates the profitability of premium warehouses in the Moscow region to be 10–11% per year.

The profitability of commercial real estate traditionally depends on the rental flow. According to Avito Real Estate, interest in leasing warehouses in Russia increased by 11% year-on-year in the first quarter, while the supply of rental properties decreased by 9%. IBC Real Estate noted that the rental of warehouse space in the Moscow region over the past year has risen in price by 66%, to 9.7 thousand rubles. per square meter per year, warning that the further potential for increasing the indicator is limited. Mr. Fomichenko speaks about this, predicting that in 2024 the rent of warehouses in Moscow and the Moscow region will rise in price by 6%, to 10 thousand rubles. per square meter per year.

Although developers are counting on further activity from buyers. Investment Director of Orientir Group of Companies Olga Kashkarova believes that warehouses with long lease agreements provide stable rental income and protection of funds from inflation. According to her, many new investment properties are appearing on the market, while development activity in other segments of commercial real estate remains reduced. In the future, investor activity may spur a reduction in deposit rates, Skladman USG partner Alexander Khomich does not rule out.

Alexandra Mertsalova