Transport transition: Deutschlandticket: Successful project with an uncertain future

On a spring-like Tuesday afternoon, Silke Finke is standing on platform 6 of the Berlin-Gesundbrunnen train station, waiting for her Heather railway. Every day after work, the blue and white diesel railcar takes them back to Schönwalde, a small town in Berlin’s suburbs. The 49-year-old works as a loan officer in the center of the capital and has been commuting for many years – with the Deutschlandticket since May 1st last year.

In a few days the ticket will celebrate its first birthday. Regardless of whether it is the subway in Munich, the S-Bahn in Hamburg or the regional train from Berlin to the Baltic Sea: For 49 euros per month, the promise is that customers can use all local public transport (ÖPNV), nationwide.

“For me, that’s just a big price advantage,” says Finke. Compared to her previous local transport subscription, she saves more than 30 euros a month – and with the Deutschlandticket she can even visit her parents on the Baltic Sea. “That used to be another 50 euros for the return trip,” remembers the commuter. Like Finke, around eleven million users have subscribed to the ticket so far. That sounds like an impressive number. But the truth is a little more complicated, because only about a million are real new customers. “The vast majority are subscribers who simply switched because the Deutschlandticket is cheaper for them than their previous public transport subscription,” says Lars Wagner, spokesman for the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV).

A shift in traffic from private cars to buses and trains due to the introduction of the Deutschlandticket is therefore not yet apparent. But Wagner warns against hasty conclusions. “All traffic science studies show that it takes a certain amount of time for people to really change their mobility behavior,” says the traffic expert.

Until now, the continuation of the ticket has always been uncertain because the federal and state governments were arguing about financing. But if the customer potential is to be exploited and the Deutschlandticket is to contribute to the ecological transport transition, it needs planning and reliability, say industry circles. This applies not only to customers, but also to the transport associations themselves – i.e. those who bring local public transport with trains and buses onto the streets and rails. The problem for public transport providers: Because many users have switched from their previous subscriptions to the cheap Deutschlandticket, local transport companies are losing large sums in ticket sales – the VDV expects losses of around four billion euros for 2024 alone. That’s why the ticket is being funded in equal parts by the federal and state governments this year with a total of three billion euros; the remaining shortfall is to be made up for by unused funds from last year. Whether this will ultimately be enough to actually cover the costs of the transport associations is still an open question – as is the question of how things will continue in detail and in the long term.

One of the people who should take care of a permanent solution is Rainer Genilke. As Brandenburg’s transport minister, he is a member of the transport ministers’ conference together with his departmental colleagues from the federal states. The committee is expected to present a permanent concept for the Deutschlandticket by the middle of the year. Genilke is optimistic: “At some point we have to get to a normal process that doesn’t call the ticket itself into question,” says the CDU politician. “And I consider all transport ministers to be capable of embarking on such a path.”

Points of contention in the upcoming negotiations include different regulations in the countries and the financing of the ticket. It is still unclear whether and how there can be uniform transport conditions for children, pets or bicycles, for example, in order to overcome the much-complained patchwork quilt. It is also unclear whether the federal and state governments will share the costs as before. “I think it’s a good basis if you don’t have a fundamental discussion every time about the financing of half of the ticket, but rather just accept it as a given,” says Genilke.

But planning security for customers and transport associations is only one side, according to the transport minister. On the other hand, the attractiveness of local transport services must also be increased, especially in rural areas. Lars Wagner from the Association of German Transport Companies sees it the same way. This is also shown by the sales statistics: While the Deutschlandticket is a real hit in metropolitan areas, it remains a slow seller in sparsely populated regions. »If I live in a rural area, the ticket could cost 49 cents. It wouldn’t do me any good if the bus only went once an hour, and only to places I didn’t want to go!” says Wagner. “Of course, I also have to improve the offer because an attractive ticket is currently being created that we cannot display everywhere on the offer side.”

You don’t even need to travel to the rural countryside to experience this. Just one look at the Berlin area is enough to understand that life without a car outside of the big cities comes with limitations. Silke Finke, the commuter from Schönwalde to Berlin-Gesundbrunnen, also thinks so. Finke doesn’t have a car and therefore has to rely on the train. Can she stay in Berlin longer in the evening without having problems on the way home? “Yes, but always with planning,” says Finke. »You always have to keep in mind that you will be home in time.«

During the day their train runs every half hour, in the evening from half past nine it only runs once an hour. “You have to be home by half past midnight because getting a taxi isn’t that easy either,” she says. Many others therefore do not rely on local transport at all. In the village without a car? Andreas Neumann, who lives in the neighboring town of Finke, shakes his head. “To be honest, I don’t know anyone who does without it,” says the retired teacher.

So what would have to happen to make local transport more attractive? “We would have to expand and modernize capacities in metropolitan areas and first create offers in rural areas in many places that go beyond the basic offerings that exist there,” says VDV spokesman Wagner.

In its coalition agreement, the federal government had actually agreed on a so-called expansion and modernization pact for local public transport. This stipulates that the federal government, states and municipalities jointly define quality criteria and standards for offers and accessibility for urban and rural areas. The FDP-led Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) still thinks the concept is a good idea. »After the successful introduction of the Deutschlandticket, which has led to a significant simplification of the tariff structures and which will give public transport a boost to digitization, the BMDV believes that the expansion and modernization pact should quickly lead to further issues being addressed together with states and municipalities “Attractive and user-friendly public transport should be launched,” said the ministry.

Only: Little has happened so far – there is still no concept of binding standards in public transport. The situation is different with the digitization boost promised by the ministry. You can actually feel it, says Ute Bonde. “The simplicity of the ticket means that we have the opportunity to go much further into digitalization because complicated sales services are simply eliminated,” says the managing director of the Berlin-Brandenburg transport association. “And if the ticket offering becomes simpler, then sales can also be digitized much more quickly.”

Bonde wants to use the Deutschlandticket as an opportunity to streamline the complicated tariff system of her own transport association. But that’s not possible at the moment – and that’s because of the Deutschlandticket itself. Because the loss of income for the transport associations caused by the introduction of the ticket is calculated based on the ticket system in the pre-Corona year 2019 and reimbursed by the federal and state governments. “And if I get rid of tickets now, then I will no longer have this comparison and will no longer receive this compensation via the Germany ticket,” explains Bonde.

The current model of compensation payments is only intended as a temporary solution, but no one yet knows what will happen after that. Because the Deutschlandticket can be purchased from various local or regional transport associations but can be used nationwide, the fair distribution of the money is a complicated matter.

And there are other difficulties: Brandenburg’s Transport Minister Genilke, for example, is worried that the quality standards in local transport cannot be maintained if the number of users increases as a result of the Deutschlandticket. “Even if a ticket is cheap, I still demand that we run sensible services in terms of safety, punctuality and cleanliness on these trains,” says Genilke. »We saw some shocking pictures last summer. But of course the capacity on the tracks will also be finite. The minister has a clear idea of ​​what needs to happen. »We need more money to order local rail transport and of course more money for public transport. Otherwise the transport transition will not work.«

Genilke will have the opportunity to discuss the issue with his counterparts at the Transport Ministers’ Conference on Wednesday and Thursday. The future of the Deutschlandticket is then high on the agenda. Nobody actually believes that the ticket could be fundamentally questioned. The actors also seem to agree on half the funding. Just how much money the federal and state governments will end up spending and under what conditions the Deutschlandticket will be offered in the future – The transport associations, not least, want a quick and reliable answer to these questions.