All eyes are on civil servants’ and pensions… How much of an increase in inflation do economists expect?

Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce inflation data for the whole of 2023 and December on Wednesday. SSK, Bağ-Kur retirees, civil servants and civil servant retirees are waiting for the inflation data to be announced on Wednesday. The net figure will become clear after inflation.

According to a survey conducted by AA Finance with the participation of 10 economists, the average of bear inflation expectations was 3.19 percent. The inflation expectations of the economists participating in the survey for December were between the lowest 2.90 percent and the highest 3.60 percent.

DECEMBER ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 3.1 PERCENT

According to the average inflation expectations of economists for December, annual inflation, which was 61.98 percent in the previous month, is calculated to increase to 65.19 percent.

In the survey conducted by Reuters with nine participants, a 3.1 percent increase in CPI was predicted for December. Monthly inflation forecasts were in the range of 2.5 percent to 3.6 percent.

According to the survey, inflation is expected to be 65.1 percent in all of 2023. Annual inflation forecasts range from 64.1 percent to 65.8 percent.

According to Bloomberg HT’s survey, December inflation is expected to be 3.12 percent monthly and 65.03 percent annually.

According to the Foreks survey, the monthly median forecast of economists in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December was 3.00 percent, and the average forecast was 3.01 percent. While economists point out that the cheaper fuel prices and the controlled exchange rate increase due to the decline in international oil prices this month have limited inflation, they note that the withdrawal of the natural gas subsidy as consumption increases, the lagging rent item and the high increases in vegetable prices have an impact on inflation.

END OF 2024 ESTIMATED 42.39 PERCENT

On the other hand, economists’ inflation expectation for the end of 2024 was 42.39 percent.

CPI increased by 3.28 percent in November.

MINIMUM WAGE IMPACT IN JANUARY

In the policy summaries of the Central Bank’s last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, it was stated that monthly inflation will increase in January with the effect of the minimum wage. Inflation is expected to slow down in February and beyond.

SUMMIT IS EXPECTED IN MAY

The Central Bank’s inflation report and market forecasts show that CPI will peak in the 70 percent-75 percent band in May 2024. The Central Bank predicts that inflation will drop to 36 percent by the end of the year.