Attention foreign exchange investors… Dollar and TL continue to rise before the election! How much is Dollar and Euro? Foreign exchange prices as of March 29, 2024… – Last Minute Economy News

Today’s domestic data agenda includes 2023 crop production, February foreign trade statistics, February banking sector data and the Treasury domestic borrowing program.

The rise in the dollar and Turkish lira at the beginning of March had accelerated slightly due to the high local foreign exchange demand before the local elections. However, after the interest rate increase, the exchange rate dropped from its historical peak of 32.4260 to below 32.

After the fluctuation, the exchange rate has largely returned to the gradual upward trend it has maintained since September 2023. Dollar/TL started the day this morning by getting closer to its historical peak around 32.37. Euro TL continues its rise with 34.95.

The TL, which lost 2.7 percent in January and 2.9 percent in February, has lost 8.8 percent in value since the beginning of the year. TL is preparing to complete the first quarter with a depreciation of nearly 9 percent.

The stock in TL-settled forward foreign exchange sales, which the CBRT started in March, is around 4.2 billion dollars as of yesterday.

Markets in many countries will be closed today due to the Easter Holiday. Markets will follow the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data to be announced today in the USA and the statements of US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.

POLITICAL EFFECTS OF LOCAL ELECTIONS WILL BE MONITORED ON MARKETS

The votes of the voters, who feel that the money in their pockets is gradually melting away after the general elections, and the votes of the Islamist base, who do not find President Tayyip Erdoğan’s anti-Israeli stance sufficient, strengthen the hand of the opposition in big cities in local elections.

According to analysts, the outcome of the Istanbul election, which is still on a knife edge, will test Erdogan’s power in the coming period.

According to the unclear results of the polling companies, it is certain that both candidates from Istanbul will enter a close race. While none of them seem to be positioned in front of the other in a way that can be said to “definitely win”; It seems that CHP candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu is ahead in some polls with a difference of a few points, and AKP candidate Murat Kurum is ahead in some polls. Polls show that the current opposition mayor in Ankara, Mansur Yavaş, is ahead.

Erdogan clearly says that there will be no change in economic policies after the local elections. He calls on the public to trust the economy and its program. Although there are some concerns in the markets, the general expectation is that local elections will not bring a change in economic policy like the general election. In this context, the political impact of local elections is closely followed in the markets.

Following the general elections held last year, the CBRT has increased interest rates by 4,150 basis points so far, with Erdoğan-supported tightening steps.

EYES ON INFLATION DATA

Following the February inflation data, which exceeded the forecasts and showed that core indicators remained high, inflation expectations were gradually being revised upwards, moving away from the CBRT’s year-end forecast of 36 percent. The impact of the CBRT interest rate increase on expectations, especially inflation, began to be closely monitored in the markets.

According to Reuters’ updated survey published yesterday, inflation is expected to be 43.75 percent by the end of 2024.

The data announced by the CBRT yesterday showed that the CBRT’s net reserves decreased by 4.42 billion dollars in the week ending March 22, falling to 15.21 billion dollars. Net reserves hit their lowest level since August last year.

Net reserves, which have decreased after reaching the highest level since January 2020 with 40.09 billion dollars on December 22 last year, have decreased in 10 of the last 13 weeks with the latest data, decreasing by a total of 24.88 billion dollars. CBRT’s net foreign exchange reserves, excluding swaps, decreased by approximately 5.4 billion dollars to minus 65.1 billion dollars.