Chengdu Huiyang Investment’s mid- and long-term development prospects for the coal industry from the perspective of “double carbon”
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There is still a lot of room for my country’s total GDP target growth, which will drive support for total energy demand. The economies of major countries and regions continue to recover after the epidemic: among them, the economic recovery of India and Japan has received high attention. In terms of coal supply and demand, domestic production, import volume and import dependence have all reached historical highs. On the demand side, as my country’s economic growth target is maintained in the later period, it is expected that the content of coal consumption products in GDP will be difficult to decline significantly. Looking at different industries, electricity demand will still maintain a relatively high growth rate: the non-electricity end’s output has not slowed down significantly despite the slowdown in real estate growth, which also shows that my country’s coal demand is relatively rigid. In the future, as the policy of stabilizing the economy continues Implementation, there is still room to estimate the peak demand for non-electric coal.
Before carbon emissions peak, we expect the coal industry to maintain a relatively high level of prosperity
In terms of mining intensity, my country’s coal intensity is the highest in the world, which has put a certain amount of pressure on the sustainable development of energy security and industry security: we estimate that my country’s commercial coal production will be 4.286 billion tons and 4.175 billion tons in 2025 and 2030, respectively. It may decrease rapidly after 2030. At the same time, the industry’s high debt ratio, losses returning to the high level in 2016, and a significant decrease in the growth rate of fixed asset investment are the main factors limiting the growth of coal production capacity. In terms of demand, we believe that before carbon peaks, coal demand is relatively rigid: first, the mismatch between economic development and new energy substitution has boosted coal demand; second, we estimate from downstream carbon peak planning and energy replacement progress, it is expected that carbon Coal demand is relatively rigid before peaking: We believe that by 2025 and 2030, my country’s commercial coal demand will exceed 4.677 billion tons and 4.522 billion tons, and will still maintain a large scale: compared with supply, the overall balance will be maintained: we expect that the coal industry will maintain Relatively high prosperity. As far as coking coal is concerned, we estimate that my country’s clean coking coal demand will be 580 and 516 million tons in 2025 and 2030: At the same time, due to difficulties in increasing domestic supply, the output of clean coking coal is expected to be 495 and 435 million tons in 2025 and 2030 respectively: That is to say, my country’s demand for overseas coking coal continues to be high, and it is expected that more than 100 million tons of coking coal imports will be maintained from 2025 to 2030 to achieve a balance between supply and demand: the increase in external dependence may increase the elasticity of coking coal prices.
After carbon peaks, the development of the coal industry may face certain challenges
After the carbon peak plateau period, as my country’s economic level reaches the level of moderately developed countries, GDP growth rate may drop by a level, and total energy demand will decline. After carbon peaks, the concentration of the coal industry will further increase, or it may transform into a large integrated energy group. After the recession period from 2012 to 2016, most coal companies have laid out their plans for transformation industries. After 2016, the efficiency of coal enterprises has improved, and the transformation layout has become more scientific. The transformation direction of most coal state-owned enterprises includes new energy, new materials and other future advantageous industries. For example, the National Energy Group’s “14th Five-Year Plan” plan for new energy installed capacity exceeds 120 million kilowatt hours.
Coal industry from a mid- to long-term perspective
Before the carbon peak, coal supply and demand remain relatively balanced. The high prosperity of the coal industry is conducive to the volume and price guarantee of key coal companies, and the profitability of coal companies can be expected. The interest rate environment under the overall downward economic growth rate is beneficial to the high dividend yield zone of coal. The valuation will increase. At the same time, key coal companies may benefit from increased concentration and a stronger margin of safety. After carbon peaks, it is expected that the transformation industry of some coal companies will become their main business, focusing on resource endowment and transformation track layout.
Related companies
China Shenhua (601088):China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd. (China Shenhua for short) was established on November 8, 2004. It is the A+H share flagship listed company of China Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (China Energy Group for short). H shares and A shares are listed respectively. It was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange on June 15, 2005 and October 9, 2007. China Shenhua is the world’s leading comprehensive energy listed company based on coal. It mainly operates seven business segments: coal, electricity, new energy, coal chemicals, railways, ports, and shipping. Starting from the coal mining business, it uses its own transportation and The sales network, as well as the downstream power, coal chemical and new energy industries, implement a cross-industry and cross-industry vertically integrated development and operation model. Ranked at the top of Platts’ “Top 250 Global Energy Companies in 2022” list; ranked 36th among the Fortune China 500 in 2022, leading listed coal companies; participated in the “2023 China Brand Value Evaluation Information” ”, ranking 5th in the energy and chemical industry and 1st among listed energy companies with a brand value of 205.609 billion yuan.
Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225): As the leading coal enterprise in northwest China, Shaanxi Coal has strong resource advantages and production capacity advantages. The company’s approved production capacity reaches 143 million tons, and more than 95% of the production capacity of the company’s mines are located in large-scale coal mines that are key developments in the country’s “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” In the base coal area, more than 90% of the coal reserves are high-quality coal. At the same time, the announcement disclosed the “Announcement on the Acquisition of Equity Interests and Related Transactions of Shaanxi Binchang Mining Group Co., Ltd. and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group Shennan Mining Co., Ltd.” and planned to acquire 99.5649% of the equity of Shaanxi Binchang Mining Group Co., Ltd. held by Shaanxi Coal Group in cash. , and the 100% equity of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group Shennan Mining Co., Ltd. jointly held by Shaanxi Coal Group and Shaanbei Mining, with transfer prices of 14.316 billion yuan and 20.447 billion yuan respectively, totaling approximately 34.763 billion yuan. It is understood that Binchang Mining Group has an unlisted production capacity of 12 million tons/year. Shennan Mining holds the exploration rights of Xiaohaitu and plans to build two pairs of mines with a total production capacity of 23 million tons/year. This transaction can increase Shaanxi Coal’s existing coal resources and production capacity, and further consolidate the company’s foundation for improving, expanding, and strengthening its main coal business.
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