In global markets, all eyes are on the interest rate decisions of the European and British central banks.

While the Fed did not change the policy rate as expected yesterday and kept it constant at 5.25-5.50 percent, the highest level in 22 years, it was seen that the bank gave a dovish message for the first time after a long break.

Forecasts made by the bank revealed the possibility of a total interest rate cut of 75 basis points next year.

While it is stated in the monetary policy decision text that inflation has slowed down throughout the year, inflation forecasts have increased from 3.3 percent to 2.8 percent for this year, from 2.5 percent to 2.4 percent for 2024 and to 2.2 percent for 2025. It was reduced from to 2.1 percent.

THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERESTING INTEREST REDUCTIONS HAS INCREASED

Following the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that they believed that the policy rate was probably at or near the peak in the tightening cycle, and that although bank officials did not find it appropriate to increase interest rates further, they did not want to take this possibility off the table.

Following these developments, the probability of the Fed starting interest rate cuts in March increased from 45 percent to 87 percent in the pricing in the money markets.

On the macroeconomic data side, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which was announced yesterday in the country, did not change on a monthly basis in November, but remained below expectations with an increase of 0.9 percent on an annual basis.

Yesterday, after the statements from the Fed, the US 10-year bond interest rate decreased by 18 basis points to 4 percent, and today it continued its decline and fell to 3.98 percent.

While the dollar index closed the day at 102.9 with a 1 percent decrease yesterday, it is currently at 102.6, 0.3 percent below its previous closing.

BRENT OIL PRICE IS AT 74 DOLLARS

The ounce price of gold, which completed the day at 2,024 dollars with an increase of 2.2 percent yesterday after a three-day series of declines, is currently trading at 2,034 dollars, 0.4 percent above its previous closing.

With the possibility of a soft landing for the US economy and expectations that oil demand will not decrease as much as feared, the barrel price of Brent oil is following a horizontal course today, after rising 1.7 percent and completing the day at $74.8.

With these developments, the Nasdaq index increased by 1.38 percent, the S&P 500 index increased by 1.37 percent and the Dow Jones index increased by 1.40 percent in the New York stock exchange yesterday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day on a positive note.

While a negative trend stood out in Europe yesterday, except for the UK, today all eyes are on the interest rate decisions of central banks in the region.

Analysts stated that it is certain that the ECB and BoE will leave interest rates constant today, and that clues will be sought from the statements made by ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoE President Andrew Bailey after the meeting, regarding the steps the banks will take in the coming period.

Risk appetite remained low as the data announced yesterday across the region gave negative signals.

In the Eurozone, which stands out as the region where the inflation and recession dilemma is felt the most, industrial production decreased by 0.7 percent monthly and 6.6 percent annually in October, while industrial production in the UK remained below expectations with a monthly decrease of 0.8 percent.

Yesterday, the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 0.15 percent, the MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 0.15 percent, the CAC 40 index in France decreased by 0.16 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK increased by 0.08 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a positive trend.

RISK APPETITE IN ASIAN MARKETS

A positive trend prevailed in Asian markets, except for Japan.

The increased risk appetite also carried over to Asian markets as the Fed indicated that it may start reducing interest rates next year and the possibility of the first interest rate cut in March increased.

According to data released today in Japan, industrial production exceeded expectations with a monthly increase of 1.3 percent, while the capacity utilization rate was 1.5 percent.

On the other hand, while the dollar continues to lose strength after the Fed’s dovish messages, the dollar/yen parity, which carried the downward trend to the third consecutive trading day, is currently at the lowest level of the last 5 months with 141.7, a decrease of 0.9 percent.

Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 0.6 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 1.2 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China increased by 0.1 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong increased by 1.2 percent. .