“Mix change”, but emptier cart

There modern distribution he archived an apparently excellent 2023. According to data collected by NielsenIq, sales grew by 8.3%, even better than 2022, which had shown a consistent progress of 6.6%. However, analyzing the data in detail, it emerges that the increase in turnover was achieved only thanks to the jump in prices. Volumes actually decreased by 1.7%: therefore, Italian consumers, despite having spent more, took home fewer products compared to the previous twelve months. And, looking at the performance of the individual product categories, we see how none have been saved from the consumption crisis. Beverages left 3.4% of their volumes on the street, cold products 3.1%, home care products 2.8% and personal care products 2.3%. Grocery (minus 1.7%), fresh produce (minus 1.4%) and pet products (minus 0.9%) managed to contain losses. Finally, packaged food (minus 0.3%) remained more or less at 2022 levels.

The picture changes radically if we look instead at value sales. In this case the leap of the stands out Pet (plus 15%) and of packaged food (plus 11%), the only two that grew in double digits. The drinks remain at the rear (plus 5.6%), behind the personal care (plus 6%) and others Freddo (plus 6.7%). In the middle are the fresh (plus 7.7%), the home care (plus 8.3%) and the grocery (plus 8.3%). In a context that remains far from brilliant for consumption, however, it should also be noted that progressive recovery of volumes in the second part of the year. Recovery favored by the drop ininflation. In December they grew by 0.9% and in October by 0.3% (November instead showed a decline of 0.7%). To find a positive volume reading you need to go back to July 2022 (plus 1.6%). The progress of theinflation (of the shopping cart) explains this trend very well. After reaching the maximum in February 2023 (at +16%), the price run gradually cooled with a sharp slowdown in the last quarter, i.e. exactly when volumes returned to positive territory. In October it fell to 7.2%, in November to 5.8% and in December to 4.4%. However, these are values ​​that are still higher than those recorded by theIstat for the entire national economy, which even dropped to 0.6% in December.

To cope with the increases in food prices, consumers have continued to use that strategy NielsenIq gave it the name “mix variation”, i.e. the replacement of branded products with private label analogues. Thanks to this stratagem, inflation was reduced by 1.5 percentage points in both November and December. At department level, inflation remains highfruit and vegetables (plus 10.1%) and of Pet care (plus 8.9%), while that of personal care products (plus 2.6%) and fresh produce (plus 1.2%) appears to have deflated.

The “mix variation” is very evident when looking at the performance of branded products and those with the private label (Mdd). The latter saw growth in both value sales (+12.8%) and volume sales (+3.8%), while the former left 4.7% of volumes by the wayside and had to settle for a turnover growth of 6.6%. The analysis of the individual lines of the MDD is also very interesting: the “first price” saw volumes explode (+23.9%), confirming the fact that families are looking for convenience. However, the plus 2.1% of volumes of MDD products dedicated to well-being and health also stands out, highlighting how there is a segment of customers who have greater financial resources and who are willing to spend just to put products in their cart that meet their needs. his needs. A trend that also emerges from the sales of gluten-free products (not only from Mdd but also from the branded industry), which increased in volume by 6.3%, and from those that replace animal proteins (+3.7% ).

Finally, as regards the performance of the individual channels, NielsenIq certifies the success of the discount and gods drug specialists, both favored by the search for convenience. The former saw sales rise by 8.9% over the twelve months, the latter by as much as 11.4%. However, it should also be noted the excellent performance of small hypermarkets (2,500-4,499 square metres), which grew by 8.9%. The larger ones, i.e. with surfaces exceeding 4,500 square metres, bring up the rear with a plus 5.7%. They did better than them free service (plus 5.9%) ei supermarkets (plus 7.7%), which remain the most successful channel with a share of 37.7% of the total modern Italian distribution.