The great danger awaiting civil servants and retirees… Thousands of liras will be deducted from salaries!

Public servants and retirees may experience an unexpected salary shock in July 2024.

Social Policy Expert Prof. Dr. Aziz Çelik, in his column in BirGün, said, “The cumulative salary loss of civil servants in 2024 and 2025 may exceed 72 thousand TL. Due to the erroneous collective agreement provision (Arbitration Board decision), even the official inflation rate for civil servants and retired civil servants in July 2024 and the following three-month periods “There is a danger of falling under it,” he warned.

The relevant part of Çelik’s article is as follows:

“Public servants (civil servants) and civil servant retirees, who received a 49.25 percent raise with the previous period inflation difference, against the six-month official inflation of 37.57 percent in January 2024, will receive a raise lower than the official inflation in the periods of July 2024, January 2025 and July 2025. Great loss awaits.

THE CURIOUSNESS OF COLLECTIVE AGREEMENT

The provision regarding the inflation difference, which has been included in collective agreements for years and which Memur-Sen does not object to, foresees the offsetting of inflation and the collective agreement increase. If inflation is higher than the collective bargaining increase received at the beginning of the period, the increase is deducted from inflation and the inflation difference is found. This provision did not cause a significant loss compared to official inflation in periods when the inflation rate was lower than or the same as the raise rate agreed in the collective agreement. Moreover, in recent years when inflation increased, and with the influence of elections, the government was partially eliminating the loss brought by the contract provision through legal regulation.

However, due to the lack of elections for four years after the March 31 elections and the tight fiscal policy implemented, it is unlikely that the collective agreement will be patched. Therefore, millions of public servants and their retirees may experience a great shock in July 2024.

As it is known, in January 2024, while there was a 49.25 percent raise for civil servants and civil servant retirees in accordance with the collective agreement, a 37.6 percent raise, which is the inflation rate of the last six months, was brought to the agenda for workers and Bağ-Kur retirees, as required by law, and this caused reactions. . Thereupon, the Government first added 5 points to workers and Bag-Kur retirees, and when the reactions did not subside, it increased to 49.25 percent.

While answering the criticisms regarding workers’ and Bağ-Kur retirees’ pensions and announcing the additional increase of 5 percent (16.01.2024), President Erdoğan made an interesting and critical sentence as follows: ‘In the salary increases in the second half of the year, civil servant retirees will receive the inflation difference, while SSK and BAĞKUR ‘Retirees will get all the inflation.’

The shock that civil servants and retired civil servants will experience in July 2024 and the following periods lies in the background of this sentence. President Erdoğan reminded the provision regarding the inflation difference in the 7th term collective agreement, which concerns civil servants and civil servant retirees, and said, “Don’t worry, in July, workers and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive more raises than civil servant retirees, the difference will be closed.” The crux of the matter is this regulation that the President reminded.

FINE CALCULATION!

Due to the strange raise regulations in the 7th term collective agreement, which is a joint product of the Memur-Sen confederation and the Public Servants Arbitration Committee and the Government, civil servants and retired civil servants will receive a raise below the official inflation in the periods of July 2024, January 2025 and July 2025, and their total cumulative loss will exceed 72 thousand TL. will exceed.

First, let’s look at the article titled “Inflation difference” payment in the 7th Term collective agreement. The section of the article regarding the period of July 2024 is as follows:

“ARTICLE 7- (l) 2003-100 Base Year Consumer Prices Index announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute;

b) The six-month rate of change of the June 2024 index compared to the December 2023 index is 15 percent predicted for the first six-month period of 2024 in the first paragraph of Article 4,

exceeds the coefficients, contract fee increase rates and wage ceilings in the first, second, third and fourth paragraphs of Article 4 and the upper limit of the average wage total in Article 6, on the 1st of the month in which the inflation figure for the six-month periods in question is announced. It is increased by the excess amount, effective from the

Similar regulations apply for other periods as well. How will this article of the contract be implemented and how will this process be carried out? Let me tell.

According to Article 4 of the 7th term collective agreement, the raises foreseen for civil servants and retired civil servants are as follows:

• 15 percent in the first 6 months of 2024

• 10 percent in the second six months of 2024

• 6 percent in the first six months of 2025

• 5 percent in the second six months of 2025

As explained in Article 7 above, if the CPI rate (official inflation) of the past six months is more than these predicted increases, the difference will be added to civil servant salaries and civil servant pensions. According to Article 4 of the collective agreement, if the situation in Article 7 occurs, the Ministry of Treasury and Finance determines and announces the raise rates to reflect the inflation difference. The Ministry of Treasury and Finance applies the inflation difference with the Circulars on Financial and Social Rights that it has published for years.

For example, the January 2024 increase was calculated as follows: 137.57/106*115=149.25 (49.25 percent increase). The explanation of this formula is as follows: Between July 2023 and December 2023, official inflation increased from 100 to 137.57. Salaries were increased by 6 percent in July 2023 through the collective bargaining agreement. Salaries increased from 100 to 106 with the increase in the collective bargaining agreement.

Thus, an inflation difference of 29.78 percent was found with the transaction 137.57/106. This difference was increased by the rate included in the January 2024 collective agreement (15 percent) and the total increase was 49.25 percent.

THE LOSS WILL EXCEED 72 THOUSAND TL!

In times of high inflation, the collective agreement raise formula is of vital importance. According to the raise formula stipulated in the 7th term collective agreement, collective agreement raises are deducted from inflation (in case inflation is high). On the other hand, the collective agreement raise rate gradually decreases every six months (such as 15 percent, 10 percent, 6 percent, 5 percent). Thus, the collective agreement increase rate (a higher rate) applied in the previous six-month period is deducted from the official inflation of the last 6 months.

According to this model, what could be the possible raises for civil servants and retired civil servants in July 2024?

If the official inflation of the first six months of 2024 is 25 percent (only the total of January and February was 11.54), the calculation will be as follows: (CPI index of the last 6 months / collective agreement increase index of the last 6 months * July 2024 collective agreement increase). The application of the formula is as follows: 125/115*110=119.56 (19.56 percent). If inflation is 25 percent, the 15 percent increase in January 2024 will be deducted from this and the 10 percent increase in July 2024 will be added. The reason for adding 100 to the rates is to find the total level reached with the increase, that is, the index. For example, 25 percent inflation is 125 as an index.

Thus, in July 2024, civil servants and retired civil servants will receive a raise of 5.44 points below the official inflation (25 percent-19.56 percent). This decline will continue in the next six months. During the remaining three periods of the 7th term collective agreement (2024-2025), civil servants and retired civil servants will receive a raise below the official inflation (Table).

The cumulative losses of public officials in 2024 and 2025 will be approximately 72 thousand TL. How Does? Here it is: According to the data of the Presidential Strategy Budget Directorate (SBB), the average civil servant salary in January 2024 is 37 thousand 332 TL. If this salary increased only in proportion to the estimated official inflation, it would be 64 thousand 398 TL in July 2025. However, due to the incorrect provision in the collective agreement, the average salary will remain at 58 thousand 779 TL at the end of the 7th term. While the loss in July-December 2024 alone will be 12 thousand 185 TL, the cumulative loss will be 72 thousand 301 TL at the end of three periods (Details in the table).

The total loss of the three periods will be more than 280 billion TL at today’s prices. More than 280 billion money that public servants deserve due to the faulty collective agreement provision will be left to the Treasury! A similar loss will occur for retired civil servants. Moreover, the gap between civil servant salaries and civil servant pensions will widen further.

Source and description: 7th term collective agreement raises were taken as basis. January 2024 average civil servant salary is data from the Presidency SBB. 2024 and 2025 inflation rates are estimates. Cumulative salary loss was found by adding previous period losses.

However, what should have happened was that the collective bargaining increase should have been added to the previous inflation. If this were the case, when the 6-month official inflation was 25 percent in July 2024, the raise for civil servants and retired civil servants would be 35 percent. Thus, civil servants and retirees would receive a share of welfare. Now, let alone the welfare share, they will remain below official inflation! What a collective agreement!

There is a serious trap in the 7th term collective agreement. Civil servants and retired civil servants will face this reality as of July 2024. This situation is a gift to the civil servants and retired civil servants, the authorized but incompetent confederation, Memur-Sen, the Public Servants Arbitration Committee and the Government, who do not know how to formulate collective bargaining raises during periods of high inflation and do not fight on this issue!

Memur-Sen, which is making a fuss over the loss of 345 TL due to the collective bargaining bonus that the Constitutional Court annulled as discriminatory because it was not given to some of the civil servants, blaming the Constitutional Court and the CHP instead of calling the government and the Turkish Grand National Assembly to duty, and protesting in front of the CHP for this situation that it caused. He remains silent in the face of the great loss awaiting civil servants and retired civil servants! Let’s see if Memur-Sen will dare to stand in front of the ruling party.

Let me warn you now, before the election. You may see that the officials of the authorized union or the Ministries of Finance and Labor will come out and lie to me and say that I made a mistake. I hope so! However, will Memur-Sen, in particular, dare to break his silence before the election and warn the government? I’m looking forward to! “Let’s see what Memur-Sen, who created havoc at the wrong address for the loss of 345 TL that he caused, will do for this loss that may exceed 70 thousand TL.”