Turkey Report Director Selçuki spoke to Cumhuriyet: ‘Tough days await the citizens after the election’ – Last Minute Economic News

There are only a few days left until the election. What kind of situation will we face?

I think this election is different from the May 2023 elections. First, the alliances are very different. After the election, all public opinion focused on the dissolution of the Nation Alliance. At first, the Nation’s Alliance disintegrated, and the impression was created that the People’s Alliance was standing together. But when we look at the developments, there is a different picture. YRP, the third largest component of the People’s Alliance, nominated candidates in 900 places. It is not possible to say that the People’s Alliance remains together. On the other hand, we see that DEM Party did not nominate candidates in more than 400 districts where CHP nominated candidates. We can talk about cooperation here too.

The second biggest difference is the economy. Before the May election, there was a perception that the economy was going very badly and dissatisfied People’s Alliance voters might turn to the opposition. These interpretations proved to be erroneous. There was also an expansion in fiscal policy with the introduction of exchange rate protected deposits, minimum wage increase and EYT. Therefore, the negative atmosphere could be dispersed to some extent. Now, the negative perception in the economy is at its peak. The perception of the economy in society is much worse than in May. Those who feel this the most are those living in cities. Failure to deliver what was promised to retirees will reinforce this feeling and negativity.

Will the course of the economy really be decisive in this election?

We will see its impact much more in this election. According to our research, 76 percent of the public commented very badly/badly about the current course of the economy in February. The public generally thinks this way, regardless of party. However, while the dissatisfaction rate of AKP, İYİ Party and MHP voters with the current state of the economy is around 54-57 percent, the dissatisfaction rate of opposition voters is over 90 percent.

HARD DAYS ARE COMING

What kind of situation awaits us after the election?

Regardless of the election result, the Şimşek program will continue. Because we have no other choice. But the first priority will be the economy. Very difficult days await the citizens. The cost of fixing this will be very heavy and the citizens will pay it. The question of what the economy will be like always turns negative. I travel around Anatolia very often. The economy is at the forefront. All companies are concerned about financial sustainability. They are concerned about the lack of predictability.

WE SHARE IN POVERTY

Have you conducted research on young people? Do political parties understand young people?

No, he doesn’t understand. Because if they understood, young voters would differ significantly from the rest of society in their voting preferences. We don’t see it. Young people expect a better life where they are safe and secure. They want a job, a house, a car. There’s no way they can achieve that right now.

Is there a decrease in polarization in Turkey, in which areas is there polarization?

I do not think that cultural polarization has decreased in Turkey. But there is a commonality of poverty, especially among the younger generation. Unlike the ideology of young people, their problem is the same. Young people think that current politicians cannot solve their problems. There are many young people who want to go abroad.

For the average voter, parliament is no longer a place to seek solutions. After the transition to the presidential government system, the parliament no longer has any significance in the eyes of the society. Now he is looking for a solution from local administrators. Local administrators also have to find much more innovative solutions.

WE CANNOT GET AWAY

Are citizens hopeful about the future of the economy?

The majority of participants in our research are pessimistic about the future of the economy. 57 percent think the economy will be much worse/worse next year. 26 percent are of the opinion that the economic course will not change. This rate has increased by 5 points compared to January. The voter groups with the most intense opinions that the future of the economy will be “better” and “much better” were AKP with 29 percent and MHP with 32 percent. The voter group with the highest opinion that the future of the economy will be “much worse” is DEM Party members (51 percent). Respondents between the ages of 55-64 stand out as the age group in which pessimism about the future of the economy is most concentrated, with 62 percent.

In other words, citizens cannot make ends meet.

55 percent of citizens say that their income does not cover their expenses. The rate of those who answered “My income barely covered my expenses in February” is 30 percent. The rate of those who answered “My income barely covered my expenses” or “My income more than covered my expenses” has been below 10 percent and has been decreasing since June last year. The group with the highest number of people who cannot make ends meet is the 55-64 age group, with 62 percent.

A serious group of dissatisfied people formed in the May elections. Did they return to their parties?

I don’t think they are very reconciled. But since this is a local election, the performance of the mayors is somewhat motivating. I do not expect a huge difference in participation compared to 2019.

ANXIETY IS INCREASING

What’s on the public’s agenda right now?

There is only economic and financial difficulties. Anxiety increases even more. Lives are getting smaller, homes are being combined. It is not possible to talk about an accumulation. Consumption is becoming poorer. Accordingly, products are starting to appear. Turkey has had difficulty controlling its already fragile economy since 2020, the year the pandemic began. Decreasing purchasing power, especially against high interest rates and inflation, causes old debts to be unable to be paid off and even causes new debts.