What signals will the financial data release in 2023?
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The People’s Bank of China released the 2023 financial statistics report yesterday (12th). Data shows: Liquidity will be reasonably abundant in 2023, credit will maintain a rapid growth momentum, and finance will provide strong support to the real economy.
Reasonable and sufficient liquidity
Finance provides strong support to the real economy
Data show that at the end of 2023, the balance of broad money (M2) was 292.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, maintaining reasonably sufficient liquidity.
Loans maintain a rapid growth momentum: new loans will be 22.75 trillion yuan in 2023, an increase of 1.31 trillion yuan year-on-year.
The scale of social financing continues to increase year-on-year: at the end of 2023, the stock of social financing was 378.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in 2023 will be 35.59 trillion yuan, 3.41 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Finance provides strong support to the real economy.
Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank: In 2023, we will cut the reserve requirement ratio twice and interest rates twice, optimize the real estate financial policy and other macro policy combinations, encourage and guide financial institutions to increase capital investment in the real economy, and “realize” the financial system. With the strong support of “gold and silver”, our country’s economy has shown a continued upward trend, and market expectations and confidence have steadily increased.
Credit structure optimization
Strengthen support for weak links in key areas
Financial statistics for 2023 show that my country’s credit structure will continue to be optimized in 2023, and finance will continue to strengthen support for key areas and weak links.
In 2023, corporate loans will grow steadily and rapidly. Throughout the year, loans to enterprises (public institutions) increased by 17.91 trillion yuan, of which medium and long-term loans increased by 13.57 trillion yuan, accounting for 75.77% of the increase. The proportion increased significantly from 62% in 2019. Stability continues to improve.
From the perspective of loan structure, the credit structure will continue to be optimized in 2023, and finance will continue to strengthen support for key areas and weak links. The year-on-year growth rate of medium- and long-term loans for manufacturing, inclusive small and micro loans, and green loans has generally remained at 30% to 40%, which is faster than the growth rate of all loans; in 2023, the 400 billion yuan quota for scientific and technological innovation re-loans will be fully used, and carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced. Emission reduction support tools and special re-loans to support the clean and efficient use of coal increased by 425.1 billion yuan in total.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank: Although new loans to real estate and local financing platforms have decreased, more credit resources have been allocated to support the formation of new productive forces, and the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy continues to improve.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union: The credit structure continues to be optimized, and precise drip irrigation of key areas and weak links such as technological innovation, private small and micro enterprises, and green development has been increased. Overall, in 2023, finance will further strengthen its support services for the real economy, and the efficiency of financial resource allocation will continue to improve.
Corporate loan interest rates remain low
Financing costs remain stable but declining
Financial statistics in 2023 also show that since 2023, the decline in deposit interest rates has enhanced the sustainability of financial profit sharing, corporate loan interest rates have been running at low levels, and the financing costs of the real economy have stabilized but declined.
Corporate loan interest rates are running at low levels. Since the third quarter of 2023, positive factors in the domestic economy have increased significantly, the policy interest rate has entered an observation period, and the loan market prime rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for four consecutive months. At the same time, corporate financing costs still maintain a downward trend. The weighted average interest rate of new corporate loans from January to November 2023 was 3.89%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points, setting a new low since statistics were collected.
Experts said that the decline in deposit interest rates in 2023 will enhance the sustainability of financial profit transfers. Following June and September 2023, major state-owned banks took the initiative to lower deposit interest rates again in December, with the reductions ranging from 10 to 25 basis points from 1 to 5 years. Since the beginning of 2024, many small and medium-sized banks have also followed suit. Make adjustments.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank: Against the backdrop of continued decline in loan interest rates and narrowing of bank interest margins, a timely and moderate reduction in deposit interest rates will help alleviate pressure on banks’ liability side and enhance their ability and sustainability to support the real economy. .
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