When will the inflation rate be announced? Inflation expectations for November…

Food and service prices and natural gas usage increased in November, with this effect, inflation is expected to increase by 3.9 percent monthly and annual CPI is expected to be 63 percent with a limited increase. Inflation rates for November will be announced at 10:00 on Monday, December 4, 2023.

President Tayyip Erdoğan’s vote In parallel with the promise, the natural gas usage of residential natural gas subscribers up to 25 m3 until May 1, 2024 is covered from the budget. It is expected that natural gas use during the winter months will make a strong contribution to inflation, as it goes beyond the level covered by the state. Following the elections, in addition to the increase in taxes from cigarettes to fuel, there were increases in corporate taxes and VAT due to the increasing costs caused by the earthquake. While a one-time additional MTV was introduced, BSMV and fees were also increased. With the impact of these developments, CPI started to rise again in July after an eight-month decline, but it was evaluated that the effect of these developments was fully reflected in prices as of October.

WHEN WILL THE INFLATION RATE BE ANNOUNCED?

TURKSTAT will announce November CPI data on December 4 at 10:00.

HOW MUCH IS THE INFLATION EXPECTATION IN NOVEMBER?

Inflation increased by 3.9 percent in November and annual CPI increased slightly by 63%.
It is expected to happen. CPI increased by 61.36% annually in October 2023.

In the survey conducted by Reuters with 11 participants, annual inflation forecasts for November range between 61.6% and 64.1%. While monthly inflation forecasts are in the range of 3% to 4.6%, economists said that in addition to food prices, the use of natural gas in housing will also affect the CPI.

It shows that CPI will peak in the 70%-75% band in May 2024. The market predicts that inflation will fall below 45% by the end of next year, and the CBRT predicts that it will drop to 36%.

After President Erdoğan won the presidential elections again in May, economic management and practices also changed. As the CBRT stopped using its reserves to determine the level of the TL, the TL has lost 35% of its value since the beginning of the year, most of it after the elections. Following the elections, there were increases in corporate taxes and VAT due to the increase in taxes from cigarettes to fuel, as well as the increasing costs caused by the earthquake. While a one-time additional MTV was introduced, BSMV and fees were also increased. With the impact of these developments, CPI started to rise again in July after an eight-month decline, but it was evaluated that the effect of these developments was fully reflected in prices as of October. Last week, while the CBRT increased the policy rate by 500 basis points to 40%, it gave the message that the pace of the tightening process would be slowed down and completed in a short time. The economic management, which is trying to reduce inflation and predicts that disinflation will begin in the middle of next year, states that it is a reasonable expectation for the policy rate to approach inflation expectations in 12 months in order to achieve this target. In the Reuters survey, the median year-end inflation forecast was 67%, while the forecasts were in the range of 65% to 68.9%. In the survey conducted in October, the year-end forecast median was 69.5%. According to the median of eight economists who predicted the level of inflation next year, inflation will decrease to 42.9% by the end of 2024.