ABGD projects 2024 as the year of maturity for the distributed generation market

After going through a new regulatory change in January, with the validity of Law 14,300, the distributed generation sector (in which consumers produce their own energy, a widespread practice through the installation of photovoltaic solar systems) foresees consolidation starting next year. “I think that the end of 2024 will show us the concrete, real number of this market”, bets the president of the Brazilian Association of Distributed Generation (ABGD), Guilherme Chrispim.

This Wednesday (26) the leader participated in the 18th GD South Forum, which will run until this Thursday (27), at BarraShoppingSul, in Porto Alegre. He recalls that 2012 is considered the birth of distributed generation in the country, when Resolution 482 of the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) was implemented, establishing the rules regarding micro and mini distributed generation. After that, it took about five years for the segment to reach a level of 300 MW installed. Since 2017, the sector has “taken a leap” from 20,000 MW (which represents around five times the average energy demand in Rio Grande do Sul). This unbridled growth should be more moderate starting next year.
The new rules for the sector, with Law 14,300, meant an increase in the payback (return on investment time) for the purchase of the photovoltaic system (from an average of four years to four and a half or five years, depending on the region and the distributor of local energy, calculates the ABGD representative). “But, distributed generation remains a great business from a financial, environmental, safety and global perspective. People and companies will keep looking to this system as a solution”, says Chrispim.
The leader details that there are currently dammed demands, orders made before the new rules for the segment came into force and that are being carried out now, that is, contracts signed in 2022, but that photovoltaic systems began to be installed this year. This scenario contributed to the fact that between January 1 and April 26, 2023, around 2.45 thousand MW were installed in new distributed generation capacity in Brazil, which represents an increase of approximately 20% compared to the same period in 2022. For this year, ABGD has already projected that a total increase of at least 7 thousand MW could be reached, however Chrispim does not rule out the possibility of reaching around 9 thousand MW.
As of 2024, the manager sees a prospect of market accommodation, with an annual growth of approximately 6,000 MW. He points out that the change in regulation implies adjustments and understanding. In addition, there are other factors that affect the economy as a whole, such as the start of a new government and a high interest rate.
The ABGD representative points out that in 2021 around 56% of the equipment for photovoltaic systems was financed and last year this percentage dropped to 22%. Chrispim explains that this scenario was basically due to the higher interest rate and some restrictions on credit. “However, the market is maturing, a natural movement, and we will continue to grow, but with more rational numbers”, estimates the president of ABGD.