Are you ready for the next black swan?
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In the current changing and often unpredictable landscape of the business world, the figure of the black Swan emerges as a powerful and pertinent symbol. This term, immortalized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his work ‘The Black Swan’, describes those events rare, extreme and unpredictable that have a deep and wide-ranging impact. The black swan metaphor originates from an ancient saying that presumed that all swans were white, a notion that remained unquestioned until the discovery of black swans in Australia.
Authors such as Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, in their work ‘Superforecasting’, address the difficulty of predicting these events, highlighting the importance of adopting strategies that can resist and adapt to the unexpected. The notion of a black swan not only challenges our predictive abilities, but also urges us to reconsider how we build resilience and flexibility into our organizations.
What characteristics does an event have to have to be a black swan?
According to Taleb, these three characteristics must be present for us to consider that we are facing a black swan:
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Rarity: The event must be extremely rare and out of the ordinary. It is not something that occurs regularly or can be expected based on past experiences or observed trends.
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Extreme impact: The event must have a significant and profound impact. Black swans are not mere setbacks or minor challenges; They are events that cause drastic change or have far-reaching consequences, whether in the economy, society, technology, politics, the environment, or any other relevant area.
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Retrospective predictability: Despite being unpredictable and surprising, black swans are often rationalized or explained in retrospect. After they happen, people find ways to explain or justify them, making them seem less random and more predictable than they really were.
Black swans in the Canary Islands
The relevance of this concept in the business world is undeniable: from the 2008 financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic, history is replete with examples of black swans that have defied all previous expectations and models. Both cases were black swans for the Canary Islands. But are not the only ones.
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La Palma volcano eruption, 2021: Although the Canary Islands are an active volcanic region, the frequency of significant eruptions is relatively low, making an event of this magnitude unexpected for the majority of the population and authorities. The rash It had devastating consequences for the island, affecting housing, infrastructure, agriculture and, crucially, tourism, a vital industry for the local economy.
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Paralysis of air traffic due to volcanic ash in Iceland, 2010: Events that so significantly affect air traffic at European level are rare. Volcano ash cloud Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland it was an unusual event in both its magnitude and its impact. This event not only affected Iceland, but had global repercussions, disrupting air traffic in Europe and causing a domino effect on the global economy, including a notable impact on the economy of the Canary Islands due to its dependence on tourism.
In both cases, these black swan events not only caused immediate disruption, but also led to changes in the way authorities and organizations handle natural disaster preparedness and response, highlighting the importance of resilience and adaptability in a world where the unpredictable can have a profound impact.
“You never know what you don’t know until a black swan happens.”
Are all black swans negative?
No, the black swans They are not necessarily negative. In fact, positive black swans may exist. These are equally rare and unpredictable events that have a positive and transformative impact on society, the economy or technology. Some examples could include groundbreaking scientific discoveries or technological innovations.
Furthermore, the same black swan can have positive effects for some people and negative effects for others. An example, the rise to power of Adolf Hitler, in Germany at the beginning of the last century. Although for almost all of humanity it was a destructive event, for some people, such as the businessman Hugo Boss, it had a great positive impact, since during the period of the Third Reich, it was a supplier of uniforms for several organizations of the Nazi regime, including the SS, the SA and the Hitler Youth, which allowed him to build his empire. Another example was the COVID-19 pandemic, which made more millionaires for pharmaceutical companies that took advantage of the moment to launch products in terms never seen before.
Thus, the same event can be positive or negative at the same time; It all depends on the perspective with which we look at it.
A six or a nine? It depends on perspective, but both answers are correct.
What do organizations have to do with black swans?
As we move into an era defined by digital transformation and economic uncertainty, the lessons of black swans are more relevant than ever. The question facing companies is not whether they will encounter a black swan, but when it will happen and how they will be prepared to respond. It is crucial for individuals, businesses and governments to develop robustness and flexibility to handle these unforeseen events rather than trying to predict them.
In the context of prediction, erroneous beliefs can lead to serious errors, especially given the changing nature of knowledge in a world where unpredictable events are significant, which forces us to constantly review work.
Taleb provides other advice to companies, such as the idea of being ‘antifragile’. It is the idea of going beyond mere resistance to shocks. Antifragile organizations not only resist the impacts of black swans, but also benefit from them, learning, adapting, and growing from unexpected experiences.
Following this idea of being’antifragile‘You have to know how to take advantage of opportunities. Black swans can create unique situations. The agile and prepared organizations They can capitalize on these moments while their competitors are busy reacting to the crisis. You have to be able to turn the negative into a positive. At this point, new technologies and digital transformation have a very important weight in knowing how to take advantage of these new opportunities.
With the premise that “what we don’t know is much more relevant than what we know,”are you ready for the next black swan?
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