How many TL will the dollar be at the end of 2024? Will the Central Bank continue to increase interest rates in 2024?
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While UBS stated that it expects the Turkish lira to continue depreciating, it emphasized that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) expects some loosening in its monetary policy to begin in the second half of 2024.
In its report published on Wednesday, UBS predicts that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in Turkey will decrease from an average of 5 percent in the 2022-23 period to 2.4 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025. “This decline will allow some correction in macro imbalances and will bring lower inflation and external deficit.” made his assessment.
DOLLAR WILL BE 39 TL AT THE END OF 2024
In the report, predicting that the Turkish Lira will continue to weaken, UBS predicted that the Turkish Lira will fall to 39 against the dollar by the end of 2024 and to 48 by the end of 2025.
Predicting that inflation in Turkey will start to decrease in the second half of 2024, but that inflation will be 41.4 percent at the end of 2024, above the CBRT’s estimate of 36 percent, UBS said that they expect the CBRT to keep the interest rate at 40 percent in the first half of 2024, but He also emphasized that they did not rule out the possibility of another interest rate increase.
Predicting that “With the sharp decline in inflation that will be seen starting from the third quarter of 2024, the CBRT will begin to loosen monetary policy,” UBS predicted that the policy rate will decrease to 25 percent by the end of 2024.
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