The ECB continues without lowering interest rates and the Euribor will rise again in March to above 3.72%

The expected fall in the Euribor has not yet arrived. In the absence of confirming the final data for March, the evolution of the indicator throughout the month points to a new increase. The one-year Euribor will close at 3.72%, which represents a new rebound compared to the previous months and its highest level since November of last year. This will imply a new increase in the cost of mortgages, although this will be moderate.

At the end of last year, it seemed that the indicator finally was going to cool down after a bullish cycle. However, the correction that began in November 2023 has only lasted until February, when the Euribor It rose again compared to the previous month. Therefore, March will be the second consecutive promotion, pending confirmation of the final figure.

The indicator does not take a fixed course due to uncertainty about interest rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) has ended with the increases in the price of money and already sees the first reduction on the horizon. However, it is not known when the cuts will arrive, which prevents definitive relief from occurring in the mortgage indicator. To date, several members of the monetary body have pointed to June as the beginning of flexibility, although we will have to wait until summer for this to be ratified.

In March of last year, the 12-month Euribor stood at 3.647%, which reflects this increase compared to the same month in 2023. This implies that those who review their variable mortgage annually will see a slight increase in your quota. However, this increase in cost will be a few euros per month, Idealista anticipates.

For a mortgage of 150,000 euros for 25 years and with an interest rate of Euribor plus 1%, the installments will become 852.59 euros per month, compared to 846.31 euros a year ago, according to Efe. This supposes an increase of 6.28 euros per month, which in the annual calculation amounts to 75.36 euros more.

But families that review their mortgage payment every six months will benefit from the evolution of the indicator. In this case, the reference taken is that of September, when the index stood at 4.149%, which implies an improvement and a downward revision of the cost of financing. For a credit with the same conditions and semiannual review, The savings will be 37.37 euros per month and 448.44 euros per year.

The one-year Euribor seems to have peaked in this cycle in October of last year, at 4.160%. Interest rates remain at 4.5%, the highest in 2001, for the refinancing rate. The ECB has kept financing costs at this level for four consecutive monetary policy meetings. It seems that Inflation is approaching its 2% target. The body chaired by Christine Lagarde expects inflation to be 2.4% this year and already at 2% in 2025.