The installed capacity of new energy power generation is expected to surpass coal power for the first time by the end of the year
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At the 2024 Economic Situation and Electric Power Development Analysis and Forecasting Conference held recently, the China Electricity Council predicted that the newly commissioned power generation installed capacity in 2024 will exceed 300 million kilowatts. By the end of 2024, the installed capacity of new energy power generation will reach about 1.3 billion kilowatts, surpassing coal power for the first time, and accounting for about 40% of the total installed capacity.
The installed capacity reaches a new level
By the end of 2023, the Yichen Photovoltaic Power Station located in Fugu County, Shaanxi Province, will have a total of 250,000 kilowatts of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation. So far, the installed capacity of new energy power generation in the northwest region has reached 210 million kilowatts, accounting for more than 50%. The Northwest Power Grid has also become my country’s first regional power grid where new energy is the main power source of installed power generation.
“New energy green power not only lights up the northwest, but is also transported to all parts of the country to serve the national economic development and energy transformation.” Ma Xiaowei, director of the dispatch control center of the Northwest Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, said that the northwest power grid has achieved new energy power generation for seven consecutive years. “Three improvements” in , utilization rate and power generation proportion. By the end of last year, the Northwest Power Grid had sent out nearly 400 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity, achieving the goal of 1 kilowatt-hour of every 4 kilowatt-hours generated from new energy sources. Green power not only benefits the local area, but is also continuously transported to East China, North China and other places.
In the past year, my country’s green and low-carbon transformation has accelerated overall. As of the end of 2023, the country’s full-scale power generation installed capacity was 2.92 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 1.57 billion kilowatts, accounting for 50% of the total installed capacity for the first time, reaching 53.9%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-on-year.
my country’s wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy sources have always maintained a leading position in the world. The construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas is accelerating. The first batch has been completed and connected to the grid with more than 45 million kilowatts. The second and third batches have been approved for more than 50 million kilowatts and are under construction. In 2023, the newly installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will account for 78.8% of the total newly installed power generation capacity, becoming the absolute majority of newly installed capacity. The total installed capacity of grid-connected wind power and photovoltaic power generation nationwide increased from 760 million kilowatts at the end of 2022 to 1.05 billion kilowatts at the end of 2023, accounting for 36% of the total installed capacity.
Large-scale grid connection faces challenges
According to the current rate of new energy installations, the scale of new energy power generation installations is expected to exceed coal power installations for the first time this year. The rapid development of new energy sources not only promotes the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, but also brings greater challenges to the stability, security and power consumption of the power system.
Yang Kun, Secretary of the Party Committee and Executive Vice Chairman of the China Electricity Council, said that as the scale of new energy installations such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation continues to expand, power electronic devices have been widely used in various aspects such as source, grid, load storage, etc., and the power system has shown significant power With the trend of electronics, system stability issues such as power angle, voltage, and frequency are becoming more prominent. At the same time, limited by natural conditions, the supply of renewable energy will become more intermittent and volatile, and the occurrence of extreme weather such as sudden drops in wind power and drought will cause a significant decline in renewable energy output. The safety of power facilities, power supply guarantee capabilities, stable system operation, and new energy consumption are facing unprecedented challenges.
Charging, lifting poles, lighting… On the evening of March 27, a 5G optical storage and charging integrated parking building located in Xuelin Street, Haining, Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province ushered in the peak of electricity consumption. Photovoltaics did not generate electricity at night, and the storage in the parking building The energy system is continuously providing electrical energy. “For public buildings such as industrial zones, large enterprises, and schools that build new energy, we provide users with reasonable energy storage configuration suggestions, which not only improves the level of new energy consumption, but also can cut peaks and fill valleys, ensuring the smooth operation of the power grid. “Ding Xiaoliang, a staff member of the marketing department of State Grid Jiaxing Power Supply Company, said that in the Haining area of Jiaxing, the company has built an energy storage capacity of 114,800 kilowatts.
Promoting a high proportion of new energy grid connection and consumption is a systematic project. Yang Kun suggested that we should rationally deploy supporting and regulating coal power, moderately deploy peaking gas power, vigorously promote the construction of leading hydropower stations in the basin, and promote the expansion and capacity increase of existing hydropower and the construction and renovation of pumped storage power stations. Actively promote the construction of new energy storage and the integration of source, grid and load storage, and continuously enhance the comprehensive adjustment capabilities of the power system.
“As the installed capacity of new energy sources continues to rise, how to effectively consume green electricity is indeed a challenge.” Huang Shaozhong, a researcher at the China Energy Research Society and director of the Dual-Carbon Industry Cooperation Branch, said that this requires us to approach it from many aspects and take comprehensive measures to solve it, including Strengthen the construction of power grid infrastructure, promote distributed power generation and local consumption, develop energy storage technology, strengthen the construction of regional power markets, and improve demand-side management levels.
A rational view of new energy utilization
In recent years, my country’s new energy has achieved high-quality development with an average annual installed capacity growth of 26% and a utilization rate of over 95% for five consecutive years. However, as the scale of new energy installed capacity further expands, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain a high level of consumption. Blindly pursuing a high proportion of consumption is not a good strategy.
From a global perspective, as the penetration rate of new energy power generation increases, the power abandonment rate is on the rise, which has become an objective law. There are varying degrees of new energy power curtailment in European and American countries, and the wind power curtailment rate in 2020 is generally in the range of 3% to 11%. Relevant studies believe that the critical point for the penetration rate of new energy power generation is roughly in the range of 30% to 40%. Within the critical value, the power curtailment rate is generally not high. Beyond the critical value, the power curtailment rate will increase significantly.
In fact, the higher the utilization rate of new energy, the better. Above a certain development stage and value, every step of improvement in the utilization rate of new energy will incur huge consumption costs. As a result, social energy costs will also increase, and the scale of new energy development will also be limited. International scholars have proposed the concept of “economic power curtailment” of new energy, which is to avoid the excess costs incurred by consuming new energy during peak hours.
In the scenario of high penetration of new energy, it is economical and necessary to maintain a reasonable level of utilization. As early as March 2021, at the press conference on China’s renewable energy development by the State Council Information Office, Huang Xuenong, then director of the Electric Power Department of the National Energy Administration, mentioned in response to the issue of how to ensure the consumption of new energy that “new energy policies must be scientifically formulated. “Rational Energy Utilization Target” initiative.
In June 2022, the “14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” jointly issued by nine departments including the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration officially proposed that by 2025, the country’s total renewable energy power and non-hydropower consumption The responsibility weights reached about 33% and 18% respectively, and the utilization rate remained at a reasonable level.
Experts suggest that the reasonable utilization rate of new energy is related to the penetration rate of new energy. On the basis of clarifying the overall utilization rate of the country, based on the resource endowment and development reality of each province, differentiated settings should be oriented to increase the proportion of new energy power generation. The utilization rate targets of each province will not be “stepped in step”. At the same time, regular rolling calculations and releases of expected utilization rates for each province are conducted to scientifically guide investment in new energy power generation companies and avoid resource waste.
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