Fuels: prices are rising again
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The improvement was short-lived. After three consecutive weeks of decline, average fuel prices in mainland service stations (excluding Corsica) have started to rise again. Thus, according to the figures communicated this Monday, October 23 by the Ministry of Energy Transition, which correspond to readings carried out last week, the liter of diesel (the most consumed fuel in France) gains 3.4 euro cents to be sell on average at 1.8818 euros per liter. As for the super SP95-E10, it recorded an increase of 1.5 euro cents to average 1.8308 euros per liter. Bad news in the middle of school holidays, often synonymous with road travel.
A quick look at the price curve for a barrel of oil, and in particular that of Brent, the barrel of crude from the North Sea, which is a benchmark in Europe, allows us to understand this increase. “The price of a barrel has started to rise very slightly,” summarizes Philippe Chalmin, economist specializing in raw materials and energy. These are the consequences of Hamas attacks in Israel, October 7. A barrel took between three and four dollars.”
An impact which, however, remains relatively limited on the prices of black gold, especially since, at the same time, “the United States lifted the embargo on Venezuelan oil”, notes the specialist. “And the Iranians continue to export oil to China and India.” “In the end, the Hamas attack had more consequences on LNG prices (liquefied natural gas), continues Philippe Chalmin. The Israelis stopped pumping their gas and therefore exporting it to Egypt which was unable to transform it into LNG.”
“I don’t see the barrel of crude exceeding $100”
It remains to be seen what the prices of oil and therefore those at the pump will be in the coming weeks? “If the conflict in the Middle East remains local, and geopolitics remains what it is today, I do not see the barrel of crude exceeding $100,” predicts the economist. And therefore prices at the pump cross two euros. »
To support his analysis, Philippe Chalmin refers to economic forecasts for next year which announce a slowdown, particularly fueled by China, the world’s second largest economy, mired in a real estate crisis.
A barrel at less than 100 dollars next year, which undoubtedly explains why TotalEnergies has committed for the entire year 2024, in other words over a long period, to capping the sale of its fuel at 1.99 euros/liter in its 3,400 stations. “If they had planned for a barrel at more than 100 dollars, it would cost them very dearly,” imagines Philippe Chalmin. Or they took a hedge to make sure that in the event of a fluctuation, they didn’t lose too much.”
Worker fuel compensation expected at the start of 2024
Finally, as a reminder, worker fuel allowance must be distributed at the beginning of 2024. In the amount of 100 euros, it is equivalent, for average consumption, to a boost of 20 euro cents in aid per liter for six months. It will be paid to the lowest 50% of workers who have requested it, i.e. potentially 4.3 million motorists. This compensation must be voted in the framework of the public finance bill currently being debated in Parliament, 430 million euros have been budgeted to finance it.
Large retail brands also began selling fuel at cost at the beginning of October. If Leclerc and Carrefour carry out these promotional operations on a daily basis, other networks such as Casino, Cora and Intermarché carry them out two weekends per month. Like Système U, Auchan also provides it at least one weekend per month. “For certain brands, even if they don’t want to say it, I think they are even sales at a loss,” says Philippe Chalmin. In their calculations, they do not take into account their investment costs, such as the construction of the gas station.”
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